@dionysusthyrsus decent and very valid analysis but the market has a bigger appetite for speculation over the known. A move to Man United and England duty are somewhat built into Maddison's price, Grealish not so much just yet.
Upwards price movement is good for both depending on your view.
Good spot indeed! Didn't pick up on that and if missing you lose alot of insight on the full price movements.
Did Theo Hernandez just give himself the game winning goal at present by scoring an own goal? 😂😂
Also what a player he's turning into index wise, very promising and at this rate a great long term hold. Got age and nationality on his side
Three things stick out for me.
The loss of Kompany can't be underestimated, he's been the leader and player embassador for that club close to a decade, he would have been an example and prescence to every single player and it's impossible to replace that overnight.
Laporte, Zinchencko and Ederson all have had medium to long spells out and at different times. It's easy to pinpoint Laporte but where is the consistency in the back four? It's going to be chopping and changing from now till pretty much the end of the season and that's hard to build momentum with.
Rodri, great player but he's different from Fernandinho and offers less protection to the back four. I'd imagine the idea with him in the team is greater possession but just look at how open they've been on the counter this season, the mix still isn't right or needs time to gel.
Looked at this player a few times and what put me off was he has Payet and Thauvin to compete with at Marseille. If he was the top dog PB wise in his own team his price would be at least double what it is. Not saying he's a bad hold at his current price but he will need to be a patient one.
What's that now, 3 PB wins for Thiago Silva this season? Obviously his age is a massive negative but on the bronze/silver match days he's capable of a PB win without goals or assists. If you could guarantee he would be playing for a few more seasons he's probably one of the best value buys on the index.
Players with a great PB average and capable of the odd goal are a really good investment as long as long as the price is right. These types of players are great value at present as they don't get the headlines but I think thier value will be better understood as they build up a history of PB wins.
You mentioned one in Gundogan and two others I like at present are Kovacic and Suso. There are plenty more further down the value chain and if you can be patient with your investment thier value should grow along with the index.
@TotalPunt really appreciate you posting this. Find the Germany snapshot really interesting, 8 out of the 10 wins being defenders and not much else. Also EPL and Serie A look the stand outs for PB winners on gold days, at least so far this season.
I bought Ronaldo with an exit point in mind of Euro 2020, I still plan to hold till Euro 2020. I believe rightly or wrongly I will be able to market sell at above or around the price I bought him (£2.85) and he will have returned decent dividends in that period.
So to answer your question when buying an older player I already had the exit point marked out.
@TotalPunt thanks for this, very interesting. If you have all the data intact how difficult would it be to replicate for just gold match days? I wonder if it would show a different or same pattern?
Given gold match days are the most competitive it could potentially give the best insight.