During the recent months almost all of us have been wondering how FI will get things back on track, not just in terms of growth but providing value to areas of the market that the removal of instant sell significantly devalued. We may not have initially realised it but enhanced IPD’s are the new deposit bonuses and it’s an absolute master stroke by FI. The promotion gives users enhanced returns for investing money into the market, stimulates the non-PB and money back holds and encourages a huge turnover in sells and buys through in game trading. Far more lucrative for FI then just dumping 10% cash into your account and far more exciting and potentially lucrative for users, win/win!

It’s for this exact reason that I sincerely doubt we will see traditional deposit bonuses return throughout the season, I believe it’s far more likely that we will see enhanced IPD’s return when the market needs stimulating or for major tournaments like Euro 2020.

The appeal of enhanced IPD’s should also be exceptional to attracting a wider range of gamblers/inventors, especially casuals. Imagine a traditional bet placing money on Manchester City or Liverpool to beat let say Aston Villa at 1/5. You win you get your stake back and 1/5th of that stake in winnings, you lose it’s all gone, simple as that. With the index during enhanced IPD’s you can now look at equivalent returns by lumping into a 50p player with the hope he scores a goal worth 10p of returns. Not only that but you’ve multiple attempts across a potential 30-day window, the chance of greater returns with goal/assist or clean sheet output and whatever level of success you intially have the option to hold that bet for a period of 3 years. I just see the upside as massive if the logic translates to a wider market.

Highlighting my own approach, I’ve invested about £1,200 into 1,300 shares, my logic is if each of those shares returns on average 10p in IDP’s I will have made just over 10% return (just like a deposit bonus). That’s also exclusive on any cap app or potential PB rewards.

FI can’t offer enhanced IPD’s on a regular, its 100% a loss leader promotion for them but is also 100% a better mechanism to bring excitement and confidence to the market then a deposit bonus. In this current promotion and with a new PB structure that’s a long way from reaching it value, for me, there has never been a better time to be active and trading on here, and I’m someone that made their first real investment on this platform around the last share split.

Happy trading all!

If I take a monthly view of mid August till now;

Lukaku was £1.50 now £1.92
Barella was £1.01 now £1.13
Pulisic was £2.67 now £2.33
Havertz was £3.65 now £3.82
Jesus was £2.54 now £2.53

I get if you bought higher value players in last couple of weeks you will have had your fingers burned but if we're going to talk about drops let put them in context with the relevantly recent rises.

Saw this on twitter, I know others have stated what's needed but does boggle the mind how this first phase of OB's has been rolled out.

@Munchie63 this aged well... 💩

My first sizeable deposit in the football index was early 2019, however, I remember hearing about the product sometime ago and decided to test the waters with a small amount. I initially deposited £10 in April 2016 but didn't follow it up with any further investment as I couldn't see the appeal of the index at the time and things seemed very basic back then. (Big mistake of course!)

So what world superstar did I buy in April 2016? Messi? Ronaldo? Ibrahimovic? Not a chance! there was only one player whom I knew would go onto be king of the index and turn my £10 into £100!

And 36 months later here's what I sold him for.

So for anyone wishing they had invested years ago to have accumulated thier riches this might make you feel better! 😜

*Pictures the wrong way around.

Think I'll be the only one hoping Cornelius holds on to top forward and star man and the GOAT doesn't do what he normally does! Picked up a 100 Cornelius on ME for 35p last week so will be a nice return either way.

IPD’s will be removed, at this point that’s a play I think FI will need to make at some point before next season.

My thought process is very simple on this; It’s a loss leader for the football index and it encourages downwards pressure of player prices with no incentive for them to rise.

The loss leader statement for football index is easy to quantify, they need 4% commission (2% on buy’s and 2% on sale’s) to cover the IPD’s earned via a player in a 30-day window. For a £1 player that equates to the maximum goal/assist/clean sheet output to be less than ‘2’ over a 30-day window for commission to cover IPD’s. Looking at the number of proven goal scorer's & assisters (Immobile, Ben Yedder, Vardy, Mertens, Illicic, Muller, Benzema, Moreno, Suarez, Belotti, Morata to name a few) under £1 currently these types of players have a significantly higher output than ‘2’ on a regular basis over a 30-day window. Consider similar but not as prolific players under 50p, including keepers, then look at the players just over £1 whom are heading downwards in price.

The valuations of players are slightly more complex, but the underlying aspect is cheaper player prices present higher levels of profitability with less commission to account for when actively trading. The active user base at present (approx. 3.5k traders), in my opinion, is focusing on the IPD returns as they’re more regular and guaranteed then PB or MB dividends. If I can buy and recycle player ‘X’ at 30p every 30 days and bank the IPD’s why do I want his price to rise? Why do I want to pay a higher level of commission on player ‘X’ and reduce my profitability? Player ‘X’ might return me close to 100% ROI in a season alone and if I hold 900 shares in player ‘X’ I can exert influence over his price (current VWAP) to keep it there. If the majority of ‘active’ traders are subscribing to the above there is less investment in the top end (top MB/PB winners) and there is a trickle effect of players prices at all levels gradually eroding before they become viable for IPD recycling or the MB/PB returns become competitive against returns on offer (% ROI) when IPD recycling. To clarify, I believe the market is currently at this point in terms of player prices and buying and selling patterns, IPD’s are no longer secondary in terms of what traders are chasing.

That leads me onto intrinsic value;

I’ve had a mindset that you would value a player based on potential dividend return’s over a 3-year hold period, that seemed to be at least reasonable and the catalyst for top end growth. That intrinsic valuation would be based on PB & MB returns only and not IPD’s. Over the last few months I’ve re-evaluated that and I now believe the intrinsic value of a player is…...truly unquantifiable..... Intrinsic valuations are subjective, but if I can’t see the full number of shares in circulation, if I can’t see the full depth of bids and offers then how can I come to an assessment on what to pay for a player? The only consensus I can come to is If I’m going to purchase a player, I need some relative confidence that dividends earned are going to pay back 100% of the purchase price in the quickest time possible. The other view here is that intrinsic value is ‘zero’, you’re simply trading the spreads and quickly dumping anything that doesn’t come off as intended. To clarify again, I believe the market is currently at this point in terms of player prices and buying and selling patterns. Traders either have no interest in holding past a quick flip or they are waiting for lowest possible price point to maximize dividend returns.

So, my thoughts in summary;

IPD’s are unsustainable for the football index.
IPD’s are now as significant as MB & PB.
IPD trading keeps player prices low.
Intrinsic value is unquantifiable under the current system or ‘zero’.
Price erosion will continue under the current conditions while traders seek optimal returns.

The intention here is just to share some thoughts, be great to here from people whom see things differently or want to expand upon any of the above. For me we can better guess what’s to come if we understand where we are.

To end on something positive I do think the index will be a healthy playground to trade in long term and can see a real boom during the Euro’s. Remember that liquidity is also relative to the size of the boat you’re trying to float, a competition like the Euro’s has far less players and games to choose from then standard all year round leagues. Timed with a promotion from FI could be profitable and fun for us all!

I'm sure in a years time we will remember this initial phase of ME fondly. "Hey, remember when you could buy half the market at a 20% discount or greater? Those were the days"...

@Geronimo159387 people aren't going to take 2p of IPD's for a player they can't trade out of over the next few weeks, Bundesliga has almost finished.

I think the other major positive is we've all wondered at some stage in the back of our minds what would happen if the market suddenly tanked. Now we know and have gone (still going!) through it I think that's a major boost to peoples confidence in having monies tied up here.

@Victory I don't own any bitcoin so clearly not! 😂😂

Didn't think it would happen this quickly, just proves that FI were losing out substantially on IPD trades Vs commission, so much so that they didn't want to wait till the end of the season to make the change.

I don't believe its a 'fair' change mid season when people have set thier ports up for IPD's but I'm objective enough to see why a company that's losing money would make the change. It's not good for customer trust, I'd imagine for some it's irreparable at this stage.

@Munchie63 this aged well... 💩

@Geronimo159387 I'm playing in 100 - 300 shares per player for IPD refreshing, perfectly viable for traders with those volumes.

@Mere-Mortal I don't think the IPD game Is as black and white as chasing IPD's, it's calculated for those that want to be.

I have a few players whom I'm refreshing every 30 days across the season. I'll use Yann Sommer as a current example.

Top bid currently is 25p and lowest offer is 29p. In order to refresh my shares at relatively no cost I just need to find 1p between selling via offers and buying via a bid, If I can find 2p I will actually make a bit of profit. With order books at present that's not hard to achieve with a bit of patience and timing.

Effectively if I keep my Yann Sommer shares IPD eligible all season with low risk refreshes I'm going to have an ROI on those shares comparative to top PB/MB holds on the index. That's before I even factor in any potential PB wins.

@Highfields96 said in Thoughts: IPD's to be removed and intrinsic valuations.:

I'd probably also say with a bid and sale commission, the amount of IPD won is eroded by the commission paid by traders who are impatient/don't realise the commission on both sides.

Very relevant point, I'd imagine that aspect balances the equation a little closer.

On the data point I'd be almost certain that when they decided to Increase IPD's they didn't anticipate the mass recycling that traders have adopted with the order books. That current behaviour was more the catalyst for my thoughts on things.

@Geronimo159387 said in Thoughts: IPD's to be removed and intrinsic valuations.:

@DW

Liquidity should be their one & only top priority atm because without it the market will continue to bleed both £££/traders. In fact they could do far worse than INCREASE IPD's, similar to the 5x promo, as the amount of liquidity, trading & commission that it encouraged was the highest we have ever seen.

You and a few others have highlighted how varying forms of liquidity should address the balance and ultimately I think that's sound logic for a rosier picture for all. I could really see the potential for prices to rise and stabilise higher if the things mentioned by you and a few others come to fruition.

On the Sancho example I've always assumed that the £15 FI earned for minting a share will need to cover the lifetime dividends of MB & PB payouts which for Sancho could be over a decade. While they probably have a pretty penny or two right now they can use (and I agree they should) they also need to be prudent enough to service the long term liability of the dividends.

@Dan-The-Man hey buddy.

I have about 35/40 players between 100 and 300 shares I'm trading for IPD's predominantly. IPD's are actually fudmental for me currently, more looking at the flip side on how FI sustain them long term.

@Geronimo159387 I agree, removing IPD's would kill the index. I'm more highlighting how, especially at the current prices, I don't believe FI can cover the liabilities of IPD payments long/medium term if the majority of active users are trading for them. + it stifles top end growth, which also hurts the FI pocket if they can't mint new shares.

I'm familiar with your ideas and views on IPD refresh & liquidity, I'm just not convinced that FI as a company can make any money from it. Perhaps if the majority of the active user base is predominantly trading for PB and MB then minor losses on the IPD's is sustainable for them as a company.

IPD’s will be removed, at this point that’s a play I think FI will need to make at some point before next season.

My thought process is very simple on this; It’s a loss leader for the football index and it encourages downwards pressure of player prices with no incentive for them to rise.

The loss leader statement for football index is easy to quantify, they need 4% commission (2% on buy’s and 2% on sale’s) to cover the IPD’s earned via a player in a 30-day window. For a £1 player that equates to the maximum goal/assist/clean sheet output to be less than ‘2’ over a 30-day window for commission to cover IPD’s. Looking at the number of proven goal scorer's & assisters (Immobile, Ben Yedder, Vardy, Mertens, Illicic, Muller, Benzema, Moreno, Suarez, Belotti, Morata to name a few) under £1 currently these types of players have a significantly higher output than ‘2’ on a regular basis over a 30-day window. Consider similar but not as prolific players under 50p, including keepers, then look at the players just over £1 whom are heading downwards in price.

The valuations of players are slightly more complex, but the underlying aspect is cheaper player prices present higher levels of profitability with less commission to account for when actively trading. The active user base at present (approx. 3.5k traders), in my opinion, is focusing on the IPD returns as they’re more regular and guaranteed then PB or MB dividends. If I can buy and recycle player ‘X’ at 30p every 30 days and bank the IPD’s why do I want his price to rise? Why do I want to pay a higher level of commission on player ‘X’ and reduce my profitability? Player ‘X’ might return me close to 100% ROI in a season alone and if I hold 900 shares in player ‘X’ I can exert influence over his price (current VWAP) to keep it there. If the majority of ‘active’ traders are subscribing to the above there is less investment in the top end (top MB/PB winners) and there is a trickle effect of players prices at all levels gradually eroding before they become viable for IPD recycling or the MB/PB returns become competitive against returns on offer (% ROI) when IPD recycling. To clarify, I believe the market is currently at this point in terms of player prices and buying and selling patterns, IPD’s are no longer secondary in terms of what traders are chasing.

That leads me onto intrinsic value;

I’ve had a mindset that you would value a player based on potential dividend return’s over a 3-year hold period, that seemed to be at least reasonable and the catalyst for top end growth. That intrinsic valuation would be based on PB & MB returns only and not IPD’s. Over the last few months I’ve re-evaluated that and I now believe the intrinsic value of a player is…...truly unquantifiable..... Intrinsic valuations are subjective, but if I can’t see the full number of shares in circulation, if I can’t see the full depth of bids and offers then how can I come to an assessment on what to pay for a player? The only consensus I can come to is If I’m going to purchase a player, I need some relative confidence that dividends earned are going to pay back 100% of the purchase price in the quickest time possible. The other view here is that intrinsic value is ‘zero’, you’re simply trading the spreads and quickly dumping anything that doesn’t come off as intended. To clarify again, I believe the market is currently at this point in terms of player prices and buying and selling patterns. Traders either have no interest in holding past a quick flip or they are waiting for lowest possible price point to maximize dividend returns.

So, my thoughts in summary;

IPD’s are unsustainable for the football index.
IPD’s are now as significant as MB & PB.
IPD trading keeps player prices low.
Intrinsic value is unquantifiable under the current system or ‘zero’.
Price erosion will continue under the current conditions while traders seek optimal returns.

The intention here is just to share some thoughts, be great to here from people whom see things differently or want to expand upon any of the above. For me we can better guess what’s to come if we understand where we are.

To end on something positive I do think the index will be a healthy playground to trade in long term and can see a real boom during the Euro’s. Remember that liquidity is also relative to the size of the boat you’re trying to float, a competition like the Euro’s has far less players and games to choose from then standard all year round leagues. Timed with a promotion from FI could be profitable and fun for us all!

My own belief after considering various community voices is that FI have run into issues with the NASDAQ roll out and I expect it to be delayed until the start of next season. I don't believe this was ever the plan for FI so we're somewhat in a holding pattern until the NASDAQ roll out.

Im also of the belief that the delay in NASDAQ roll out has delayed the involvement of true liquidity providers and market makers which is reflective of current market volatility.

Future wise I see FI picking up around the Euros and into the start of next season. I think the Euros could see a big boom in participating players prices if timed with a decent promo. Then we should roll into speculation around a dividend increase and hopefully full NASDAQ roll out by that point.

Until then it's all about collecting dividends and buying players at prices based on you're own valuations.