Posts made by Ermejo
RE: Share Split Winners?
Unless you've been sleeping under a rock for the past 2 or 3 months you know full well there's another SS on the horizon, but who are the most likely to benefit from this?
Mathematically it "should" be business as usual HOWEVER the truth is the current dividend structure simply doesn't lend itself to a neat division whatever number you use, unless you're happy to mess around with decimals which in my opinion looks shoddy.
In turn, the big AC has stated that they will be as generous as they can be when re-evaluating the new payout structure, so we know for certain (well 99%) that there will be changes and the number of maintenance windows being used would back that up.
So, if you believe anything you read you'll probably be as convinced as I am that a War Chest is being held back to react to the new dividends when they are announced on Monday the 18th March. It's important to note, if you're new to the platform, that announcements move the market even if the implementation is days or weeks away.
Which means that (unless every dividend category is increased by the same %, which is highly unlikely) there will be certain types of players that will rocket when the Market is reopened (I think I've read 2 hours after the announcement - but I might have dreamt that one!).
So the question is who and why!
To answer this you should try and put yourself in FI's shoes, without bragging I managed to do this during the last announcement and made 8k from second guessing that FI would introduce some value to Goalkeepers, which turned out to be the Clean Sheet Dividend.
So what do FI really want? If we take the Spread out of the conversation for a moment, we're left with their lifeblood - 2% commission (along with Happy Customers, which most of us are with such a brilliant concept!). In this sense nothing makes them (and us if we get it right) more money than mass volatility. "Will he, won't he" transfer news and injuries are a great source of this but the new mechanism of in-play dividends (IPD) stimulates trading rather than sitting on a hold for 3 years waiting for the divs to drip in so my guess would be that; FI, without detriment to their core principles of PB and MB, will encourage more trading in this area than any other.
Now take into consideration the amount of money invested in Media Cash Cow's like Pogba and Neymar, making changes that would significantly weaken the value of the top players would no doubt cause uproar with traders who have majorly invested in them based on existing dividends, so I firmly believe that FI will also increase the dividends available in this area too but not quite as much.
The water here get's slightly mirky if you read into Mike Bohan's tweet asking whether Media should be opened up to the Squad! Plus, during testing there seems to be a suggestion that Media may also become tiered during Match Days too. Put simply, Pogba would theoretically be worth even more as it's highly likely that he'd make the top 3 on a ridiculous basis.
Where does this leave PB?, my favourite mechanic on the platform (and I'm sure for many others too). Well it can't be neglected that's for sure as it would alienate a huge chunk of their customer base so I suspect they have plans to improve this area here too.
Reading the above probably suggests that "everyone's a winner" and we all know there must be losers as reserved war chests will not be the only source of investment. A huge amount of money will also be moved from one type to another, we're not all millionaires with spare cash to burn.
After writing all of the above I won't finish off without making my own predictions and I'm being honest in saying I haven't loaded up on certain players prior to writing this (certainly not 10k splashed on keepers like last time.)
I think the losers will be the youth and that doesn't actually mean they'll crash, just that I don't think they'll benefit from a rise driven by the announcement (unless FI do something right outside of the box).
The big winners? in the main I think it'll be very spread out BUT I think that the area that made me a fortune last time could strike twice. We saw that Alisson, when in the top 200, was a media whore, the huge transfer fee helped but GK heroics certainly grab headlines. So IF IF IF they do open it up to the Squad then I think some well known keepers could be really valuable. If they increase the CS payments as part of the IPD then we could see them getting even more value.
That's my 2 pence, I'm not loaded up on them like before and just an opinion. It's gonna be a very interesting day regardless!
RE: Share split announcement
I personally think PB is a long term liability for FI and by nature traders tend to hold long term so little returns and huge payouts
MB is also a long term liability and has huge payouts however the return on commissions and spreads is far greater and every time one of the big boys has significant drops due to whatever reason (Pogba -Mou, Neymar-injury, Ronaldo-Rape) FI makes a mint in commissions and spreads
In play generates loads of trading before, during and after the games, is attractive to gamblers looking for that short term excitement and generates loads commissions and instant selling which are both good for FI bank balance
Lastly, FI will keep a divis increase in reserve and drop that ace up their sleeves later this year, could be in the form of a PB increase alongside a new PB scoring system matrix at the beginning of next season?
Just my 10p
Share split announcement
So, time to think about “If you were in charge of FootballINDEX what would you do with the shares split / dividends?”
I have my own idea and would like to gauge others points of view on the subject
I think they will
Split by 4
PB 1-2-3p, star man 1-2-3p (PB to stay the same, star player to double)
MB 2p - Treble MB 3-2-1p (62.5% rise)
Goal and clean sheet 1p (dividends doubled, defs should be 1.5p?)
Assist 0.5p (Again doubled)
FI is a business, they may want to increase dividends whilst encouraging more trading (in play) and more higher price / risk / commissions holds (MB)
RE: Gareth bale
Was looking at him yesterday and then decided against investing, he seems to be always injured and not doing that well when playing, rumours about a move back to the PL or a few goals/performances could cause a spike but I went against the having to sit and wait in hope one of the above happens