The PB Report – The First One
15th January 2021.
Hello, and firstly thanks reading this! The PB Report is an idea I had over the festive period and with the whole IPD removal debacle, the focus on PB dividends has become more important than ever.
The premise of the PB report is simple. Based purely on recent PB data, I identify 5 players trending up, posting impressive base or PB scores, or who have a generally bright PB outlook going forward. On the flip side, I identify 3 players who maybe trending in the opposite direction or are having some PB red flags against them. I won't just reel off recent PB winners as it's probably too late to be beneficial then, and this is about looking a little deeper. This is mostly fact based, and I have tried to offer rationale behind all my suggestions. I wanted to share this first one with you a.) to see if you found it useful and b.) get some recommendations for improvements etc.
I will be doing this weekly, but I want to email out this report each week rather than posting it here, partly not to clog up the forum, but more because I know people can be sensitive when people talk 'down' certain players on a forum, particularly if they own them. To get these in the future, drop me a DM on here or Twitter (IPO Scout) and I will add your email to a mailing list - the email address will be used purely for this and won't be passed on. No signup and definitely free of charge!
Toni Kroos – Midfielder – Real Madrid
Kroos has dropped in price recently, and I’m struggling to see why. In the last 5 games, Kroos has averaged 182 PB per game. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in that period. His lowest score is 140. Last game he scored 176 in a Real Madrid draw. He scored a non GWG goal in December and scored 252 and won 16p dividends. Kroos only has 1 goal and 2 assists on the season, which history shows is down on his usual, and has still won 40p of dividends this year. Can win PB without a goal, has a great chance with one.
Nabil Fekir – Midfielder – Real Betis
Fekir actually won PB this week but I still feel his performance is worth mentioning. Even with Canales on the pitch, he was on corners which is massive. Just as important, his game involvement is increasing. In the first 5 games this season his average pass attempts were just over 30 per game. In the last 5 games, his average is 46 passes per game. He completed an unsustainable 8 dribbles on Monday, but he scored 186 without a goal and 1 assist. His goal output has to improve, but there is finally some hope here.
Johnathan Tah – Defender – Bayer Leverkusen
Tah was an FI favourite a couple of years ago for being a ball playing defender in a possession-based system. He has struggled the last 18 months but has recently regained his spot at centre half and we have seen some familiar results – in two of his last 4 games 100+ passes attempted. Last week he had his strongest outing yet – a 159 with no win or clean sheet bonus. He’s over 200 with both of those. Capable of a goal from set pieces, and with such an excellent base score he has PB winning capability for sure. Fosu-Mensah has recently joined, so increased competition for places is something to keep tabs on.
Raphinha – Forward – Leeds United
Raphinha is a strange one and since the start of December he has had a PB max of 148. So why is he here? Because I think circumstances have conspired against him somewhat, but the potential is there. He has recently been put on set pieces for Leeds, and they win the 3rd most corners in the league. Leeds also rank 3rd in possession stats, so he gets more touches than most forwards. Since being put on set pieces 6 games ago, he’s averaging just under 8 crosses a match. That’s good. He’s been unfortunate that his best 3 base scores have all come in Leeds defeats. That’s a 30+ point swing (minus 15 for a loss, plus 18 for a win) if Leeds win any of those games. He is a winger not a forward, so his goal numbers aren’t going to be great, but with a base of 120, a win, and a GWG that’s a score well in excess of 200. Leeds have the ability to dominate games, and when they do I expect Raphinha to score highly.
Lorenzo Insigne – Forward – Napoli
Base Score is one of my favourite stats – it removes all win, clean sheet, assist and goal bonuses to show just the pure in-game numbers. In the last month, Messi leads the way for forwards – no surprise there. Insigne is comfortably second. Base score is nice, but to be top forward you need to score goals as well (and play in a side that wins more often that not). Napoli are sufficient at the latter, and Insigne is having a good season in front of goal with 7 in Serie A so far. He’s their penalty taker and has 3 200+ scores in the last 2 months. He has a 250 without a GWG. He hasn’t scored more than one in a game all season but is capable of doing so. If he does, it will take a great score to beat him.
Bonus One to Watch:
Djibril Sidibe – Defender – Monaco
The forgotten man who was decent for Everton at times last season but has been invisible for Monaco this campaign. Played the full 90 in the last two however and has been put on corners for Monaco and continued to take them even when Golovin and/or Diop were on the pitch last week. This resulted in a 200+ score last time out v Angers. Isn’t a goal threat which hurts him though. Literally has had one shot all season.
Achraf Hakimi – Defender – Inter Milan
I love Hakimi. Always have. Is he probably the best goalscoring defender on the index? Yes, I believe so. But the other numbers just aren’t there, and they are killing him from a PB perspective, particularly when compared to his Dortmund days. His average base score this season is 64. For any position that’s poor, but for a defender it’s awful. Even after his notably slow start to the season, his best in recent weeks is still only 82. If we add 45 to that for a goal, it’s 127, which is less than the average base score of Robertson, Upamecano, Marquinhos, Ramos to name a few. The passing volume just isn’t there – he’s had one game since October when he’s attempted more than 40 passes. His crossing numbers are inconsistent, and even his saving grace – his 6 league goals – are over double his xG of 2.56.
Sergio Canales – Midfielder – Real Betis
One man’s gain is another man’s pain. In this case, Fekir’s promotion on set pieces has hurt Canales. He’s had one cross in each of his past two games. This isn’t to say Canales will never win PB because he is a penalty taker has a respectable enough base score to challenge with a GWG. But the lack of set pieces does damage his capability of hitting 200+ scores. Any injury of switch back to set pieces would alter this of course.
Dominic Calvert Lewin – Forward – Everton
DCL’s form has inevitably cooled off since the start of the season, but his 11 goals are only bettered by Salah and Son. However, despite that blistering start he never came close to winning PB. Even when bagging a hat-trick in a win, he managed just 200. His next best score is 162. He has been a little unlucky in only getting one GWG but even with that extra 35 points his very poor base score holds him back. He is so goal dependent that even a 2 goal, GWG showing probably wouldn’t be enough. Like any prolific forward, DCL is capable of a hat trick, GWG and bringing home the bacon, but it feels like all the stars would have to align for that to happen.