@Ben_pz

As I said this is just my reasoning, however you are unwise to use the graph as new players keep being added to the platform which artificially increases the index. In addition all the new traders buy players which creates new futures which pushes the index higher but if they then sell and buy other players the index may increase but not player prices.

Remember statistics can prove anything!

I am selling up because the index is now substantially different to when I joined and so not for me - I hope you enjoy the journey as much as I have but personally I do believe buying and sitting on players is a safe strategy.

I have today spent 3 hours reading through literally 1000’s of posts on the forum discussing the current downturn in the Index. There are all differing types of posts some support the current direction and many more worry about it.

As a businessman that has spent his life building a substantial business that has always had to move with the times and embrace change I believe I have identified the direction FI are moving in and for me it is time to take out all bar 10% of my funds.

This does not mean everybody should as we each use, invest, enjoy FI for differing reasons, but for me it is time to go.

Why

In my opinion Football Index has now reached the part of its business plan where it diverts from it’s original strategy. It only makes money when players are sold so the more selling the more profit. Daily buying and selling (gambling) on the outcome of matches (IPD’s) is now and probably was always planned to be the heartbeat of the operation and it is where it can maximise profit and revenue.

To get to this point it needed to build a large loyal and dedicated fan base (us) to help build its name and reputation so it could achieve this. We have made money month after month which is the perfect way to build the brand. However it is now happy to lose a percentage of us as we were never actually part of the long term plan.

When I sell my players off they will make commission, the players will fall in value and as more traders do the same, these players will become more affordable to daily trade! Players going up and up in value are not what the platform is about from there point. Cultivating regular punters who enjoy a differing style of short term gambling is where the big profits are.

Do not be upset as this is a business and I have benefitted greatly but over the next few years you will see it more and more become a more mainstream gambling site - It is a disruptor just like Betfair was. However the bottom line is that it was created to make profit for the owners not a cash cow for us. Eventually 90% of people will lose money as that is what gambling is all about.

It has been a great ride and I wish you all well, I will still be here gambling and punting on players with a couple of grand of my profits but the other 20k of profits is about to be used to buy a property for my daughter (she is only 14) so will be paid off by the time she needs it 😀

@Timothee-Atouba

I do believe we will see them but not until the new technology is ready. The reason being is that they will increase FI’s profit margin substantially and probably improve there cash flow.

To explain:

Using all current players priced at £1.50 there instant sell price are £1.45, £1.46, £1.41 and £1.40 which reflects the risk involved and recent trends in buying or selling of that player.

Therefore when order books are introduced if the player is priced at £1.50 but you cannot get a buyer at that price you will start to lower the price you are willing to sell at if he still does not sell as nobody wants him then FI will be a buyer of last resort and offer a price which is probably lower than current.

My guess is that all instant sell prices will become a standard % lower than the buy price and at a guess say 10%. This means that offloading unwanted players will involve much more skill and timing. However for the compulsive gamblers and one day flippers the risks will increase dramatically.

It will be very similar to the Betfair model in the early days - I was a first day customer of there’s and the buy and sell prices then were much further apart from todays where the margin is so tight.

Personally I think it will be brilliant for thoughtful and serious investors as you will be able to buy players at roughly what todays instant sell prices are, it will be very good for FI but will be disastrous for the compulsive short term gamblers.

• by serious I do not mean the heavy hitters/rich I mean those that study and have a solid strategy 😀

As per all 3 threads money will still be able to be made by good selection of players that provide above average dividend returns and as you state capital appreciation in specific circumstances just not at the rate we have made money in the past

@Dan-The-Man

Hi Dan,

Thanks for replying I want to clarify once and for all to you and Pagey that if both of my posts are read accurately I definitely did not say the only way to make money in the past, now or in the future is only via dividends or to hold the top players only!

If read accurately I used the following phrases:

With each passing month
Becomes more established:
Within 12 months
Majority of Top 50 players have reached stagnation price
When people finally realise
But eventually
There are still IPD plays available
When the platform matures further

None of this reflects your replies I was trying to articulate the part journey FI has reached.

To explain further:

The majority of recent IPO’s in the view of most traders are now overpriced compared to the past and cannot be bought at value prices.

Therefore there are only previously released players at lower prices (less than £1) on the index and as more and more traders trawl through them there will be less and less that have any chance to really break through.

Where cheap players increase in value FI seem now to increase spreads a little further.

When order books are introduced FI instant sell will be a backstop only and spreads will be even wider.

Therefore I was stating that over the coming months and maybe in a years time - it will be substantially harder to make money at the lower end as there will be no decent cheap players as the odd good ones will already have been identified and bought - spreads will be too wide for many IPD flips and no new cheap players will be added as they are being IPO at significantly higher prices. So for the vast majority of traders wanting to make good long term profits we will have to accept a different world where the majority of players are accurately valued.

The diversion from this will be that there will be a significant number of traditional style gamblers who get short term fix’s by in effect gambling on a match by match basis. This will still enable other strategies but in my opinion not as easily as currently.

Good luck to you and all, lots of strategies can and are working for all and as a final thought for those that enquired about future returns - I can add that I have made circa 150% on my money over 18 months but have set the target of just 25% for the next 12 months unless there is a significant dividend increase.

Fletch

@Pagey74

I do not think you have read my post thoroughly and have taken offence because you currently trade in those areas successfully at present. I never said or indicated that sophisticated is rich it actually refers to traders who understand how something works and the in this case the likely odds of being successful. A rich fool can easily be parted from his money!!

One of the reasons I do not over post on here is that to many people are easily offended (remember Andy M) and then argue back and forth when usually it is because they do not take the time to read posts fully and then jump to conclusions.

I stated that within 12 months the lower priced players that can earn you a return from IPD will be priced accordingly and with wider instant sell spreads so that it will be difficult to achieve profits. Currently there are still IPD plays to make but they get fewer by the week.

The bonkers part is that nearly every lower priced player statistically has little to no chance of winning PB or MB so in effect is a waste of money unless someone else is dafter to pay a higher price for an asset that is probably worthless.

When the platform matures further and stabilises the majority of returns will be from PB and MB as capital appreciation will reduce dramatically meaning that dividend yield will be crucial. Therefore rich or not rich you will still get the same % return if you own 1 or 100 Neymar or other highly priced player.

This is not me saying only buy high priced players it is my take on the direction of the index over the coming months and years and from looking at the facts.

So for the last couple of weeks I have continually read articles from traders about player price drops, large spreads on players to instant sell and if a player has increased in value should he be sold. So now might be a good time to remind everyone that this is a gambling site and not a money tree!

With each passing month as more traders join the index becomes more established and just like any other index there will be ups and downs but more importantly there will be volatility. However just like when buying stocks and shares some people will do full due diligence whilst others will buy what they hear down the pub whilst others will just buy anything and more importantly will sell on emotion not sense.

With the platform now a little more established there are a higher percentage of traders that truly understand the concept of value so it will become less easy to make the returns we have become used to for what in effect was little effort or skill.

If the platform only reacted in a sensible and logical way only a handful of players would ever be bought and FI would make little money, however due to the fact that gambling is emotional and people do it with little or no study or planning means that it has and to an extent still is possible to make money based upon other traders gambling and emotional decisions.

To explain: If the index is rational there would be a fixed percentage return we would all accept for the risk taken with our capital, then using known statistics and sensible projections we would look at a players dividend potential over the next 3 years and work out the price he should be. I actually believe that a lot of the top 50 are close to these prices so hence there stagnation. However this stagnation reflects they will earn you money over that period and dependent on if their performances get better you will get an increased return or if they are injured or decline your return will fall.

The current fascination with young players is easy to understand as traders are scared on missing out on the next big thing so wish to buy on the cheap. However this is fraught with danger as you are now paying top 20 player prices for unknown future returns and for every 1 you get right there may be 10 you do not.

IPD are a brilliant way for FI to generate revenue as they play to the gambler and with large spreads and increasing prices my guess is more people lose than win and that within 12 months the players that can possibly make you money will be priced accordingly and losses will become more the norm.

Cheap players - this is the real bonkers part of the index - between everybody I read about on the forum you must hold at least over 400 cheap players sub £1.00 saying they will double. However over the last 18 months I am guessing these players or similar account for less than 5% of all PB wins never mind MB wins. However currently they make money as others also buy them but this can only end in tears when finally everyone realises for the purpose of the index they are dog shit!

Do not get me wrong there is money to be made at all levels but eventually there will be enough sophisticated traders understanding value that it will become a lower returning more boring environment that also caters for short term gamblers.

If you have got to this bit you really must have little to do as when re-reading this it is particularly boring 😀

Pogba and basically the majority of the top 20-50 players have all fallen during the first few weeks of the season and this is quite understandable. In my opinion the lower value players have seen strong rises as new traders join and try out the platform with smaller investments and the £1,000 risk free, this has enabled longer term traders to take advantage by taking profit from top 50 players and joining this trend.

In addition with the euros eliminating many treble media days and PB being difficult to win due to some fixtures being very one sided there seems little value in the higher priced players. However once this international break concludes and some regular trends in PB and MB develop I would expect to see the top players rise again as traders see the dividends come in and recognise that lower priced players win PB and MB hardly at all and that flipping for IPD's also becomes more difficult as the lower priced players have increased in value and commission eats up profits.

With FI still being a relatively new product and with numbers growing we are bound to see different cycles and trends and making profit will become harder and we will have to accept lower returns but they can still be in double figures and a well balanced portfolio of dividend winners, young developing players and IPD flips will ensure you are never over exposed.

It is also in FI's interest that the product and all player prices increase over time to ensure there income and profitability rises and therefore, Deposiut bonus, dividend increase and share splits will happen over the coming months and years. Which will ensure the top players continue to rise but maybe more slower but they will return income and profit it just depends on your personal trading style and if you want to get rich quick or slow :)

@Friedeggs

Not took a penny out yet, I am expecting a dividend increase hopefully in December as FI will need to do something then to encourage traders not to withdraw for Christmas. Also I expect yields to be lower with higher prices so would seem the perfect time.

If that happens and prices jump I may look to take back my £20,000 stake then.

Hi All,

I looked back on my now 8 month old post and thought an update may be in order as I have today reached a significant milestone. By posting this update it will hopefully help new and old traders alike who may be thinking about strategy.

Through the last 8 months I have not changed dramatically in how I invest and the type of players I invest in - yes there has been a share split and dividend changes but the fundamentals have not changed. I still invest in top players and look out for lower priced players who I believe can earn dividends.

I continued to drip feed deposits (a further £5,000) and reached £20,000 of deposits a few months back and do not currently intend to deposit any further funds.

Today my portfolio has reached £40,000 so I have now doubled my investment . Of the £20,000 profit, £3,700 has come directly from dividends and there is now a constant stream of dividends coming in which allows me to grow the portfolio or maybe in the future withdraw as a tax free income.

My current portfolio is 46 players and is made up of the following:

500 Futures in Neymar, Salah, Kane, Sterling & Rashford
400 Futures in Sancho & 350 in Havertz
300 Futures in each of, Pogba, Kimmich, Mbappe, Jesus, Tah, Brandt, Goretzka, Nandez, Zaniolo, Foden, Rodrygo, Neves, Trent AA, V Junior, VVD, Carrasco, Hudson-Odoi, Dembele
150 Futures in each of, B Silva, B Fernandes, Chrisante, Eriksen, Pulisic, Ballo-Toure, Bamba, De Bruyne, Messi, Jovic, Verratti, Greenwood, M Gomez, N Pepe, Nelson, Brewster, Mahrez, R Vieira, Loftus-Cheek, Castagne,Kroos

My cautious approach has not changed and the majority of the portfolio are proven dividend winners alongside some future potential divided winners. Lots of the lower priced players which I own 150 shares in were bought in batches of 1000+ but sold down as soon as profit could be taken and then profits reinvested in higher priced players.

I do not look at the Index as a get rich quick scheme but more of a get rich slow process. Personally I do not now see much value at the lower end of players as I really cannot see them winning dividends in the next couple of years so what is there real value!

I believe the higher priced players are actually good value as the majority do earn you money and FI will have to increase dividends in the future (I believe mid December) and then these players will grow the most. Therefore they are a low risk bet in my opinion.

Finally when I joined people said I had missed the boat but obviously I had not - so if your new I would not worry - the top players may look expensive but they are not because FI will always need to underpin there value by increasing dividends or by share splits. New young stars will emerge and grow dramatically in price, however avoid the dross in the middle, they may look cheap but they are cheap for a reason!

Good luck to all for the rest of 2019