But not the most successful English team in Europe! :)
Posts made by Fletch
RE: Mason Greenwood: The First Billion Pound Player?
RE: What’s up with Pogba??
Price has currently settled at £6.71 seems to roughly an equal amount of small stakes buyers and some instant sellers - therefore you have plenty of time tonight/tomorrow to make a plan - I would guess that roughly 30p of his drop is due to shares in the sell queue as not seen many big instant sells go through. Personally I would not instant sell at the current £6.11 + 2% commission when his sell price is 60p more. Especially as guaranteed dividends for days to come.
RE: What’s up with Pogba??
As much is this is all about Pogba the real driver behind it is his agent Raiola and pure £££££
Until he gets all his eggs lined up nobody will go anywhere - It would not surprise me if he has promised united De Ligt if they let Pogba go to Madrid.
I think this may drag on and on until close to the end of the window and would not rule out him brokering a deal where Pogba gets a massive pay rise at United with the agreement he can go next summer.
Agents are all about the money
RE: What’s up with Pogba??
Not sure why Bale is not rising as if Pogba leaves United, Madrid must have some sort of exit for Bale as would guess they cannot keep him on the books due to FFP. Not saying he would be coming to united but must be going somewhere and therefore is very under priced.
Gareth Bale - Time to buy or bale out?
I have spent more time over the weekend considering Gareth Bale than any other player on the market. I have come to the conclusion that it is far more likely he moves on than stays, however I do believe the move will be very late in the transfer window as it seems both club and player are playing a very high stakes game of chicken!
My reasoning is that Madrid cannot afford due to financial fair play to have his wages on the books and surly he will want to play football rather than sit on the bench every week. The obvious destinations are PSG especially if Neymar goes to Barcelona or a subsidised loan to Tottenham or Man U.
My biggest issue is how low can his price go before any positive news comes out which may be weeks away.
I am hoping to top up with 1500 futures but can he drop to say £2.15 in the next few weeks a move to either PSG or the English premier league could see a jump to circa £4 within days of the news.
RE: What's your best tip to our new traders?
Before you buy any players read the rules, read the rules again and when you have done that read the rules again. Watch the tutorial videos and then go to the Football Index Master thread and read that. Far too many new traders have bought players without knowing how the index works. If you are spending hard earned money at least give yourself the best chance of success.
RE: I don't currently hold any of the "Big Boys" but am considering expanding my port to accommodate ONE - who should I go for any why?
I currently hold 11 of the top 12 most expensive players on the platform (sold Hazard a while ago) so I cannot be accused of bias!
If you are buying your 1st top 12 priced player there are several things to consider:
Potential Capital Appreciation over the time frame you wish to hold
Capital appreciation if transferred
Capital depreciation if transferred
Ability to keep value if seriously injured
Therefore if you want the safest bet you would rule out some because:
Pogba - Depreciation if transferred
Messi - Depreciation if seriously injured due to age
Foden - Limited PB chances due to lack of game time
Hudson-Odoi - Limited PB chances due to being injured
Mbappe - Overshadowed by Neymar if he stays
Neymar - Injury prone and may move to Barcelona where PB could be harder to win
Rashford - Playing in a poor team so limited PB opportunities
Salah - Will need resting after AFCON and struggled to win PB last year
Hazard - I sold at peak price and before re buying I would like to see how Zidane sets up next year at Madrid before buying.
Therefore for a safe top 12 pick
Sancho - Guaranteed starter, easy league, will challenge for PB & MB transfer rumours galore next year and young enough for price to recover after any injury.
Sterling - Now gets more positive press, Performances and goals get better each season and still quite young.
Kane - Dull and boring but chips in with enough MB & PB and could get some transfer noise next year.
Therefore I would buy any of those 3 not because they are the best but because they offer you a safe route into the big boys with little downside then as time goes by you can add others and by diversifying you then reduce the risk.
RE: Pogba, Hold or sell
I agree it may seem boring, however many traders over the last 3 years have built there portfolios around media buzz you cannot just get rid of it or move the goalposts as this would directly change the value of players overnight. If changes are to happen they would need phasing in very gradually over a long period of time.
When we all decide to invest via the index we know the rules and the dividend structure and therefore should be investing with that in mind
RE: Dispelling the Football Index Growth Myth (research heavy)
With Football Index being such a young, embryonic and still developing product it is possible to produce stats to support just about any theory. Please remember that initially there was only media buzz then PB was added and then IPD, there have been share splits and changes to PB and MB dividends and bonus deposit periods galore and yet the product is less than 4 years old. Last summer we had a world cup to keep us interested and this year media madness and until the product is much more established and mature there will continue to be incentives which can/will distort values.
I personally believe that once we get into the new season we will actually start to see player values more accurately reflect there true value (price = % chance of earning dividends both now and in the future). My reasoning for this is that there is a higher percentage of traders that have been on the index for more than 12 months now and have the experience of at least 1 full season of football and with access to the data available can more accurately predict dividend returns.
Yes we can make money from transfer rumours, pumping & dumping, IPO's and spotting young talent early however these can all be difficult to time and require a little bit of luck. Whereas the core of the product for roughly 8 months of the year is to select players who produce a dividend return in excess of 8% (8 would be my minimum expected return for the risk taken) or more which hopefully supports capital appreciation.
With each passing year and the product maturing getting good dividend returns will be required to increase players prices as with less new money (traders) entering players prices will not just continue to rise forever.
RE: £100 paper challenge - can you outperform the top six by 29 April?
5 months ago
10 x Lucas Digne @ £2.70 = £27.00
10 X Julian Brandt @ £2.81 = £28.10
10 x Kieron Dowell @ £1.28 = £12.80
5 x Timo Werner @ £5.25 = £26.25
5 x Ronaldo Viera @ £1.00 = £5.00
2 x Luis Advincula @ .36p = £0.72
Total spend £99.87
Now worth £145.35 so very similar returns
RE: Pogba, Hold or sell
If we accept that this will be a drawn out saga then there will be a significant amount of MB to be had over the next 6 weeks. Then there will be in all probability periods where his price falls as it looks like he will move then there will be periods where his price rises because he looks like he stays. Therefore wether he stays or goes there will be opportunity to profit and if he stays the profit will be huge.
Personally I think he will still be at united until at least the Christmas transfer window so have today added more futures at what I consider a value price.
I will use dividends to add futures in other players who I believe would rise if he left to try to reduce risk and as I own a relatively large amount this does help.
RE: Kieran Dowell - Future at Everton?
He is set to play a more deeper central midfield role for the under 21’s and if it goes well I can see plenty of clubs showing interest in him. A premier league loan would be ideal for him but the 2 player loan rule does not help. I think his future will be sorted as soon as the u21’s finishes.
Ten To Follow
I have been studying some of the lower priced players and have now got my 10 to follow for the next 12 months. To qualify for inclusion they had to be under 25 years old and in my view have real potential to double in price. Other criteria was to at least have one of the following either major transfer possibilities in the future, or be at clubs with European football or at least be getting regular 1st team football.
I do own futures in them all and have been investing on the index for over a year now and have owned most for the majority of that time. I have put todays price against each so that it can be judged in the future. Happy to debate any of them but rather than explain each pick I have just listed them.
Luiz Araujo at Lille 59p
Jack Harrison at Leeds 36p
Bryan Cristante at Roma 47p
Fode Bolle-Toure at Monaco 45p
Tomothy Castagne at Atalanta 51p
Patson Daka at R B Salzburg 46p
Ronaldo Vieria at Sampdoria 47p
Leon Goretzka at B Munich 85p
Ismaila Sarr at Rennes £1.28
Why not list your 10 and then we can compare next year?
RE: Pogba, Hold or sell
You miss the point there were people who were here a year before me and bought him much cheaper and people were saying he was expensive when I bought 12 months ago.
If you follow current logic nobody would buy the most expensive players - what is important is value and sometimes you have to pay for value!!
RE: Neymar accusations
This gets dafter by the day with each bit of new information coming out it looks like one of the worst attempts ever to set somebody up for a payday.
If Neymar is fit (always a doubt) by September and produces a couple of PB performances he will be £8