@Andy said in Why is Messi dropping ?:
@Dan-The-Man statistics will obviously be skewed just because £1000 can buy you more shares in Moutinho than Messi. Of course Moutinho is gonna be winning more divs cause you have over 1000 shares in him compared to only 166 that the £1000 will get you. All Moutinho needs to do is win PB literally once and it would take the 166 Messi shares a fair few star player wins to make the same money, so it’s not really a fair comparison is it just from the number of shares POV. If you were looking at it from a completely neutral point of view and just took 1 share from each player, Messi is streets ahead in terms of divs won
This is @Dan-The-Man's point though. If you play it right there is more money to be made at the bottom of the market, if you can find a dividend winner then you can make a fortune compared to the likes of Messi.
What he consistently and absolutely fails to recognise though is that for a larger portfolio you won't be able to play this as well. As @Vespasian32 has mentioned several times you can spend the same amount of money at the lower end but end up with all the risk on a player. Lovely when they win a dividend but as you've bought others are certain to have taken advantage of a massive price increase and sold, the same thing happens at the top end as well after a large rise. Then you've got a load of shares that you can't sell to get the money back.
He will also make out it is as easy as that, he never mentioned Moutinho (I think it was @Yellow who did, who has also picked out some other gems) but you'd think he'd unearthed him himself. He was also a massive advocate of Henderson who he was intending to hold util the Euro's, his price has done next to nothing, I think he may be a penny less now than he was in the summer/Autumn when @Dan-The-Man was banging his drum constantly. In this case rather than Moutinho vs Messi it was Henderson vs Neymar using the same historical stats to back it up
The thread is above. That was 4 months ago so I have used data from the 10th August. At this point Hendeson was 52p and Neymar £7.02. Using his preferred £1,000 then you could buy 142 Neymar. If you had tried spending this on Henderson then you would have probably got around 1,880 and changed his price a couple of pence. @Dan-The-Man boldly predicted Henderson was the better shout, he is currently down a penny (or £37.60 assuming you'd bought all you could) and has won nothing in dividends, nada, Neymar is up 90p and has won 68p dividends and he's barely played. Most would agree he hasn't exactly shone but with capital appreciation (just under 13%) and dividends (almost 10%) he's still returned just over a 22% yield in those four months.
It's easy to pick out a top performing cheap player and make out it's the be all and end all but it doesn't factor in; the price change if you buy a lot of him, timing exit points, reinvesting more regular dividends and the fact that, as in this case, you'll likely pick some crap. Great if you have it all on Moutinho but you will most likely spread it around. If you make 50% in Moutinho but buy the same in Henderson then your profit across both trades is halved.