@Pagey74 He is, goal.com are lying it seems, or at least being a bit misleading. To be fair Betfair have him as 2/1 favourite but Christ knows why, everyone else has him behind Benzema, Hazard, Jovic and Mariano Diaz
Posts made by Joev
RE: Tempted To Double Down On Bale
@Pagey74 they have to price it up as if he's staring or else they leave themselves vulnerable, it means nothing.
Brewster is fourth favourite in the first scorer betting for tomorrow behind Salah, Mane, Origi and Firmino and ahead of any Southampton player when it's doubtful he'll get a sniff of the pitch. Jesus is 4/1 in he Man City v Spurs game which is about half the odds of Kane. It'll almost certainly be Aguero who starts but if they price Jesus at 8/1 or higher then they leave themselves open, I wouldn't read anything into it.
RE: A 15p striker needs a thread of his own.
I just responded to a post about cheap players but I think this guy deserves a thread of his own.
Tim Kliendienst (Freiburg) I found this guy last night at 15p, Currently at 21p.
Positives :- He's a Striker. He's Young (23), He plays in a PB league. Signed a new contract till 2022. Played 22 games the season before last scoring 2 and assisting 3 at the age of 20.
Negatives:- Just came back from a terrible injury so won't play straight away. Not 15p anymore!!
Overall:- No stirker on the index who's young and plays in a PB league should be 15p. At 21p he's still a bargain imo. Freiburg must think highly of him to give him a new 3 year contract whilst out injured. Will take a while to get back playing after a serious injury. If he comes off the bench and assists or scores we all know his price will rocket. Definitely a long term hold.
My main thought is if he's 23 now, with a birthday in a fortnight, how the hell was he 20 two years ago? Has he been in some sort of twilight zone?
21p is certainly very cheap for a striker in a pb league. His goal record is pretty crap but if he can get back to playing then it'll only take a goal or assist for a decent jump as people buy for IPD's and then you can get out when they're getting in, I don;t think I'd be looking to hold long term. I also don't know how likely he is to play but he's so cheap that he's low risk, not one for me but if you can be bothered to keep an eye on the lineup every week etc then there could be profit there. I can't be bothered to hold out in the hope that someone with a pretty poor record who's coming back from injury suddenly gets game time and scores, while I'm free to keep an eye on it and sell at the right time.
RE: Henderson vs Neymar
To be clear, I'm not saying that all of a sudden, he's going to win PB every week, just that he's now more likely to win it than he was before. Remember, his price tag means he only needs to win it a couple of times per season for him to eclipse many of the more frequent winners in profits.
Again factually incorrect. As @Joev pointed out 881 players gained more from the matrix change than Henderson. So statistically he's actually LESS likely to win PB than he was before.
And as for the Champions League multiplier that applies to all the players who will be competing against on a CL night other than some random French league players if there's a re-arranged game.
It's not factually incorrect.
What Joev has done, is stated that he's now 822nd for all players... which makes him sound crap... except he's not contending with 822 players. He's contending with midfielders. Then, more specifically, he's contending with midfielders who are playing on the same day as him.
There are hundreds of midfielders, not just one or two. More often than not he will be competing against the best part of a hundred on any day, bar single game days which are few and far between. Also if he ever fancies winning star player then he will need to beat all other players.
Joev pointed out that he finished 13th for PB on Friday... here's why that's ridiculous. He finished 2nd in MB for midfield. Narrowly missing out on the dividends paid to first place.
Nope, he was third. He didn't narrowly miss out either, he was 43 points short of the best midfielder for the day, to say it was close is, once again, wilfully misleading. He could have got 25% more points and he still wouldn't have won.
It doesn't matter if there's 10 forwards ahead of him in PB... it matters if he can beat out the other midfielders. He beat the rest of the midfielders in his game.
Yes, he outscored the midfield of a team who got pumped 4-1 and will be at the wrong end of the table. He outscored Fabinho by a whopping one point so he wasn't head and shoulders above him. He had one other game to compete with which was another walkover and he was beaten by two of the three midfielders from the winning team.
And Liverpool... they are likely to hit the Champions League final again this season or semi's, so there'll be days where he's playing in the only match that matter because of the 25% bonus.
I don't think it's worth holding a player for seven or eight months just in case his team does well in Europe and he gets a couple of games with a bonus on a small game day. If another midfielder scores in that game they'll probably beat him. "The only match that matters because of the 25% bonus" is nonsense as well, if he had that on Friday he wouldn't have won either and a Champions League semi final is likely to be a bit tougher than Norwich at home.
RE: Henderson vs Neymar
@Dan-The-Man there are a lot of issues here, mostly created by typical cherry picking of stats to suit your argument. I just wanted to pick up on your claim that the pb changes suit Henderson, what exactly are you basing this on? The fact that he came 13th for pb on a day when there were only two games?
Indexgain do a great table that shows how players pb would have been improved last season if the current matrix was in place then, which is about the best comparison you can get. On average Henderson gains 12.67 points which puts him around 822nd for all players, and he isn't very good to start with. When you said "Traders are still adjusting to the PB changes which he was a beneficiary" did you just hope that no one would check this and just go along with it, accepting your weak argument or did you know this and just outright lie?
RE: James Maddison
@Joev you've got some good points but Verratti has got a higher PB average than Maddison (113 vs 91), PSG often win so most matches you can bank on those bonus points and due to the price difference Maddison needs to win PB 4 times as often as Verratti to get the same percentage return.
I accept Maddison is always going to be more popular on the index and will be getting cap app but still think Verratti is a very good value hold.
Yeah he has a very good average but my concern is how often he goes above that. They win pretty much every week so he's probably already got 14 or 15 points built in to the average whereas Maddison might pick up an extra 10 or more when Leicester win. He also scores and assists more, with an assist being worth an extra 16 points now (including the 6 for a key pass), this gives him the opportunity for big scores. Like I say Verratti will consistently get solid points but I don't know how often he'll do the extra required to turn that into a pb win when there are a lot of games on, even today he just scraped it on a day when no midfielder scored in a win for their team.
I think Maddison will benefit hugely from the new matrix, he topped the league for key passes last season and did ok on long balls and through balls as well. With extra points for these and assists his average may still be below Verratti but he is also likely to clear 200 several times this season which I think will be needed to win pb most weeks.
Not pooping on Verratti as I think he's a great hold for smaller game days but I think his lack of goals and assists will see him fall short of being a regular pb contender throughout the season. Maddison will also (I think) have the potential mb of a January/summer transfer/England call up etc.
RE: James Maddison
And then look at Marco Verratti (£0.90) beating Maddison and Pogba's scores also without a goal or an assist to win midfielder PB for the day
He did get 18 points for a win though. PSG will win most games this season but I don't think 190 will be a winning score very often with the new pb. He doesn't score or assist that often (2 assists and no goals last season) and PSG had a massive 75% possession today, I think that 190 is about his limit.
Maddison got 181 but has a much higher ceiling, he got 7 goals and 7 assists last season, if he puts up similar numbers as today but scores in a game they win then you can add 63 to his score and be almost at 250. I think he'll score in a Leicester win a few times this season and when he does he'll be right in the mix for pb.
Verratti is still a decent shout for days when there are less games like today, I don't think we've seen the full effect of the new scoring yet, I think there'll be some massive scores each week, I'd be surprised if there are more than a handful of midfielder pb wins on a treble game day this season with scores under 200.
The problem is if he doesn't score goals he will seriously tank.
It turns into a gamble he does well pure and simple.
At least in the arsenal squad he has better players to get chances ect ect.
I had to get rid at a loss which is infuriating as i could have sold for massive profit a month ago but the risk is just to big for me to hold.
The Leeds team is probably stronger relative to their division than Arsenal so he should get better chances. Great record at youth level for Arsenal and England, he a year and a half younger than Dan James for example who only scored 4 (!) goals in the Championship and is Welsh so there's still massive potential to rise.
I said in the other thread that I'm in pretty deep on him but compared to other young English goalscorers (Brewster and Greenwood) he's got a lot of rise left in him.