@Jumbosausage said in Sub 40p players list:
Hubner at Hoffenheim 26p. Next 3 are games against bottom 5 opponents two of which are single game day (2 games) and a double game day (5 games) The single game day is also the first day of the increased dividends. Just beaten Schalke and Bayern Munich and he posted a decent PB score at the weekend. This guy is surely going to see a rise before 1st November.
Well that worked out pretty well. 🤓
@Barkez_86 Everybody hates us, we wouldn't want it any other way : )
Chelsea were under the cosh 2nd half. I saw enough in that first half to suggest he’s perfectly suited for PB.
@Andy For him to be a truly excellent PB scoring machine we need him playing more of an attacking midfield role and that's exactly how he's been lining up in pre-season. When he's allowed the freedom to get forward he's dynamyte!
Our new report, Implied Dividends analyses all player scores, not just winning ones, by position and day type to determine the probability of each possible score winning on a given day type. It then uses that probability to calculate a weighted dividend.
Let’s have a look at an example:
If a player scored 25 points on a triple performance day, then it is expected that they would have a 0% chance of winning the 5p positional dividend. The implied dividend is therefore calculated at 0p.
If that same player scored 600 points on the same triple dividend performance day, it is expected they would have a 100% certainty of winning the 5p dividend. The implied dividend is therefore 5p.
Now imagine the player scored a more realistic yet still very commendable score of 230. They would then have a 50% expected chance of winning the 5p dividend, which translates into an implied dividend of (5p x 50%) 2.5p.
Buzz takes each player score for each match day and creates the implied dividend for each category – GK/DEF, MID, FWD and STAR. It then sums them to create a total implied dividend yield per player.
Lastly, it looks at actual dividends generated by each player and compares this against the Buzz generated implied dividend to see which players are overperforming or underperforming, or put in a simpler and perhaps more accurate way, which players have been lucky and which ones have been unlucky with dividends earned to date.
Anyone can only ever ride their good luck for so long, mean reversion is the theory that returns will eventually return to the long-run average of the underlying data.
Put another way, Las Vegas treats big winners with free room upgrades and other special treatment, all to keep them playing at the tables. Because the casinos know that eventually the punters luck will run out and they revert to mean and the house wins.
Goretzka - I agree he's in for a big season and still cheap as chips, plus he'll be heading to the euro's as Low is a big fan.
Coman - Baring injuries he's now as good as guaranteed a starting place plus the new matrix only improves his appeal. Euro's also.
De Paul - Expect he'll get the transfer he wants this window and he has bags of FI potential. Another the matrix improves.
Zinchenko - Should make the left back spot his own at City and yet another the matrix improves. Euro's also.
It would be great to able to add notes to players in the portfolio and watch list.
I've got 750 of him . Madrid clearly don't want him and there's no way they can have him warming the bench. Just felt he had to get a move this summer and now hoping it is indeed back to the Prem. The worry was he would take the pay day in China but he ruled that out last week which is when I decided to have a tickle. You'd have thought he'll go past £3 easily by the start of the season if he's back here.
He 100% shouldn't be priced higher than Werner. A little research and you'll soon see he's a shocking PB player. I'd say he's over priced already.
@Matt-FI ok mate, thanks for the update.
So what’s the plans for this now? Do I win the March prize?
@FI_IPOSCOUT Keep the faith, we've just had a little blip, it'll be fine. There isn't two better teams than us in the Championship this season.
@Barkez_86 Everybody hates us, we wouldn't want it any other way : )
He's still great value, I think his game is more than well suited for PB.
I've sold 90% of mine that were in profit and I'm now left with 8 players in a total of £815 in the red. I'm not worried as i know almost all of them will be back in the green by the summer as they're all top Euro holds. My plan currently is to sit it out and sell all mine during the Euro's hype and re invest in the non euro players ready for next season.
He's just starting to find his feet, I'm a season ticket holder at Elland Rd and as mentioned above he's been somewhat of a frustrating player to watch the last season or so. That said under Bielsa he has potential to improve further and there's signs he could be great.
He threatened to retire if he got another bad injury. That didn’t look good.