Our new report, Implied Dividends analyses all player scores, not just winning ones, by position and day type to determine the probability of each possible score winning on a given day type. It then uses that probability to calculate a weighted dividend.
Let’s have a look at an example:
If a player scored 25 points on a triple performance day, then it is expected that they would have a 0% chance of winning the 5p positional dividend. The implied dividend is therefore calculated at 0p.
If that same player scored 600 points on the same triple dividend performance day, it is expected they would have a 100% certainty of winning the 5p dividend. The implied dividend is therefore 5p.
Now imagine the player scored a more realistic yet still very commendable score of 230. They would then have a 50% expected chance of winning the 5p dividend, which translates into an implied dividend of (5p x 50%) 2.5p.
Buzz takes each player score for each match day and creates the implied dividend for each category – GK/DEF, MID, FWD and STAR. It then sums them to create a total implied dividend yield per player.
Lastly, it looks at actual dividends generated by each player and compares this against the Buzz generated implied dividend to see which players are overperforming or underperforming, or put in a simpler and perhaps more accurate way, which players have been lucky and which ones have been unlucky with dividends earned to date.
Anyone can only ever ride their good luck for so long, mean reversion is the theory that returns will eventually return to the long-run average of the underlying data.
Put another way, Las Vegas treats big winners with free room upgrades and other special treatment, all to keep them playing at the tables. Because the casinos know that eventually the punters luck will run out and they revert to mean and the house wins.