@Mike78 but you seem to forget that with more and more users more and more money is on the market. This new liquidity injection leads to higher player prices. So there are two things that leads to higher player prices:
- Media and Performence Buzz (= Higher dividends) and
- More and more users on FI.
= both things will happen, i m sure (= my opinion)....
From a financial ecenomic perspective, this doesn't really make sense. If traders act and trade rationally then the amount of advertising SHOULD be irrelevent to a players price.
For a very high risk investment like FI, you should be looking for a 15% ROI minimum to be worth buying.
Lets say a player is expected to return about 50p a year and is relatively young (around 25) then a reasonable price for the player is £3.33. Any less than that and the player is under-priced and everyone should invest until they reach £3.33 and any more than that then they are over-priced. The amount of new users doesn't change that. If the player is £3.50 then they are not worth the price and people shouldn't buy.
20 million new users can join but the player is still over-priced at £3.50 and people shouldn't buy the player based on expected financial returns. You can advertise something all you like but it doesn't make something that was worth £3.33 worth £3.50.
In reality of course if 20 million new users join then ultimately they will want to buy the player because in part FI is as much a game as it is a way to make money (like betting). The player will therefore rise in value but will be artificially over-priced. What you will then see is people seeing the player rise and buy because they think the player will keep rising so the player becomes more and more over-priced creating the bubble. Of course once the player stops rising there is no reason to hold the player - they aren't going to make capital gains and the price doesn't justify the dividends so logically the player should crash back down to £3.33.
Of course - if the devs double the dividends again then suddenly the real value of every player doubles. You could argue the £3.33 player is worth more than that on the basis that maybe the devs will increase dividends in the future.
Its interesting to watch to see what happens when you combine a financial market with a game. The index seems to be torn between trying to follow economic principles and between following what happens when people throw money at a game.