@MrWh1te I am glad you retracted your statement about claiming this platform is a ponzi. You seem like an intelligent person but you lost all credibility when you started your argument with this statement. I also sense there is some pride in the way that the need to defend your statements and strong desire to be right overrides everything else and closes you off from other opinions.
There is a difference between investing and trading. Those people that invested in Amazon, Apple, Facebook etc in the early days all benefited from new money entering their respective stock. This is in principal the same situation FI is in at the moment. Consistent growth. However your statement of the ONLY way to make money is by new money entering the market is not totally correct. It is the easiest and most lucrative I agree. However traders make money by smart trading by spotting the patterns of seeing where the shift of existing money will go. And of course many others sit on trades for dividends. Like in any market, there will be those that hang onto amazon, apple, facebook etc and succeed but there will also be other pro traders that make money from understanding market sentiment, short term trends, patterns, technical analysis etc.
Your argument about total saturation and 2% losses for every trade mathematically is correct and of course once day could happen assuming that there is a 2% sell fee per trade. But imo it is a very linear and fear based line of thought. The thing you did not consider in your argument is 1. business innovation and 2. the real power of dividends. There are smart people that are in charge of FI and as the company grows they will pay for more smart people to join. Their job is to keep the product evolving to match the demands and needs of the market and use their skill, experience and innovation to attract and retain new users thus allowing the product to continue to grow. This now in fact stretches out the long term viability even further. The scenario you are predicting of the total death of the product with market shrinkage at 2% of every trade at this point could of course happen but it would take a huge hit to the betting / football market for this to happen. Every product has its death eventually but I really don't see the point of vehemently defending this point when you also suggested a possible 10 year mark for this scenario to play out. Yes it's obvious that one day like every product it will die but why you are emphasising this point and spreading awareness to current users today really imo is a huge waste of energy and I think is more to do with your desire to protect your initial argument that FI is like a ponzi / is a ponzi over anything else. Will FI die out through lack of innovation like a Blockbuster video (remember them?) or will they be more of a bet365, betfair where even at saturation they manage to keep enough new money coming in to balance the money coming out thus keeping product continuity? I feel the latter. I believe once they have exhausted the existing market, the current population boom which will include many new fooball and betting lovers, the new countries and ran out of innovation and ideas, yes there will be a mass exodus and this is many years down the line. Which brings me to my 2nd point regarding dividends...
Should there ever be a mass exodus from the market, at some point, as prices drop the dividends will catch, protect and save the market. Imagine if the market was saturated right now today and your 2% shrinkage scenario played out, but Neymar dropped to £6, £5, £4, £3, £2, £1, 50p, 30p, at some point people are going to switch from fear and panic to the idea of holy shit, Neymar can give me this many pb, mb dividends and he only costs for example £1.10?!? Hence the key piece that makes this market totally non ponzi, is also its fail safe to allow for market continuity and revival and brings a new cycle of investment into the market again. This is why I feel your argument although mathematically correct is a bit linear, short sighted, scare mongery, and to be honest a bit pointless. 3 weeks is a long time in FI world, and unless those in charge really fuck up the super strong position they've put the product in, we are talking years and years and years. My prediction is more positive. The people you are talking to today including yourself will have made a very satisfactory sum to potentially life changing in this time. And if the market did collapse, they would also be the same people waiting to jump into the market when prices drop to such a point where dividends make it mouth wateringly good again. Just something to consider and add to your equally valid opinion.