I posted this in another thread, but figured I would post it here so that:

1. Anyone who still likes me can see it
2. It doesn't derail the other thread and
3. It feeds my appetite for attention!

For my part I am going to be taking a big back seat on the forum. My views are clear and rehashing them is not going to make people see my view. All I can do is play FI to make the most money I can and de-risk to my own level. But I will do so with my held high that I am have not taken advantage of anyone and I have been as honest with my views as I can. No-one know this but I am actually holding a shit dead-end player that I CAN instant sell. I refused so far, because that would mean me simply passing a dead bet onto someone else, and I stand by what I say, even though it costs me money. I now feel I can sell it on and leave someone else to pick up the pieces. (I guess that is why I am so aggrieved with certain trolls, I am telling how I see it at the cost of my own personal money, whilst being hammered by people who are looking out for themselves. They know who they are.) I will now sell that player on, knowing I have done all I can to do the right thing. But I cannot keep posting on this forum without being honest in myself. I can't not speak the truth as I see it. As such, it is time that this is my end. I leave with my head held high.

This will be my last day on the forum properly. It coincides with going back into the classroom. When I come home, I will be self-isolating from my own family and my own daughter. I will therefore use this time to pop on and read posts, maybe say hi on a couple of threads. But I will be using other forms of communication now. I feel it is best for the forum, which has been a large part of my life over the past 16 months.

I wish you all well.

Paul

This has been bugging me for a while and I keep meaning to make a post about it but not had the time, so here goes...

FI is very much like poker in its business model AND its customer base.
Some players win, some lose and the site takes commission (rake), paying some back in dividends (rakeback/freerolls).
And for you to win, it is essential that others lose. In poker, weak players are called fish. I will use the same terminology here for sake of ease.

First consider, that the people who make the most profit are the people who engage in the site the most. That includes social media etc. Those who don't engage are much more likely to have losing accounts, or at best a lower profit margin than those who seek every avenue for knowledge.
So how many players?

On the site itself, going by usernames, I think we can assume we are over 300k accounts. Now let's also assume there are only 50k active accounts (in reality it is likely much more) and base our numbers on this.
On twitter it looks like there are roughly 30k accounts linked to FI, but you can probably discount well over half to bring it down to 15k. Infact, those actively engaging in twitter is probably less than 2k but lets keep it at 15k.
There are about 4k on facebook, you can safely assume at least half are on twitter so lets say 2k.
Then there is this forum. I would be shocked if you could find more than 200 active accounts, and another 800 lurkers to give 1k, but let's double that to 2k too.
50k accounts - 15k twitter - 2k fb - 2k here = 31k players who are NOT actively engaged in seeking our information from others. Lets add another 6k who will look for own info but are not engaged here that would bring it down to 25k players not engaged.
That is 50% of players. That is a huge % and most likely, so much higher. 50% of accounts are fish accounts. (And personally I would say it is closer to 5% of all players actively engaging in forums etc).

So when you are ranting on here about people IS'ing etc, you are wrong. You WANT and NEED people making bad decisions to be able to make your profit margins.
By all means point out why it is wrong, because your thoughts will only reach a tiny minority of people.
But don't laugh and take the mick. We have a saying in poker when you find a fish. "Don't tap the glass."

When you are looking at drops, they aren't even that bad.
When you see someone say 'omg he dropped 50p, it is disaster' consider that is only 45000 shares being sold. That is less than 1 share per account. It is a tiny amount.

FI talk about big numbers being traded, such as 35million. You can instantly half that because you can bet they include both buyer and seller. Then there is all the movement in play etc. It is quite a small amount being traded, most people will be sitting tight.

ISing and losing players are good for us. It pays dividends. It pays for the bonus. It pays for advertising.
IPD's drive this, again, this is good for us, not bad.

Fish = good.

Now, I have seen the argument that everyone wins here. That is bull and not even close to true. So why would people stay if they are losing?
Consider:
Poker has approx. 2% of players winning. That is 98% of players losing and the number of players keeps growing.
Betting has approx. 5% of players winning. That is 95% of players losing and the number of players keeps growing.

And the numbers grow because people are dumb, or have different reasons for playing.
I win at poker and betting because I put in the extra effort needed. The same will happen here.
Losing players will continue to play here and keep depositing because they are gamblers, or they have convinced themselves they are winners, or simply because it is entertainment.

Buy low when others make mistakes and sell too much.
Sell high when others make mistakes and buy too much.

But keep the fish coming and the profits will follow.

Last day of work, then (unless government change rules) I am not back in school till May. It is been very tough and im exhausted, but feeling pretty good, well as much as I can.

It is after lunch, so I head out to collect the children. Year 6 playing football. I stroll over, call out for the ball. It rolls up nice. I see glory, I am gonna be a fking hero.
I flick the ball up with my left foot, do a 360 spin and bring my right foot round to smash it. Top bins.
Do my groin and collapse. Kids laughing. Dinner ladies laughing. Colleagues laughing. Family seem quite pleased.
Now I am self-isolated in my bedroom, leg in the air, absolute pain.
Humilated. Gutted.

It is my belief that bots are the biggest threat to FI as it stands.

I have seen people say 'FI don't care so why should we?'
Quite simply, FI care about profit. They won't care how much profit we make, as long as they continue to make their profit margins. All the time bots are driving commision, they have no incentive to act.

Let me be clear, I very much enjoy FI, it is fun and more skillful than traditional betting. That is why I have invested here (I make approx £100 a month profit from traditional betting) as the fun element is more here.

The difference in skill level here is what keeps me playing. I am playing here because I am playing against real people. I make a profit if the people I am playing against make worse decisions that I do.

Disclaimer here: I am a poker player. A good poker player who has seen the damage that bots can do. And bots have brought down sites in the past, and will do in the future.

Aside from the 'I want to be playing against real people and not a computer' argument, is the obvious financial argument.

I see bots making huge profits from 3 places here.
Firstly, the obvious IPO. Secondly, the pumpers and dumpers and finally, the saturday rush. I am sure they are elsewhere too, but these are the three that I intend to focus on.

Why should we care? The maths, for starters.

1. IPO's.
   As someone who isn't usually around for IPO's but who had read all about the bots, I actually got to witness this yesterday when off work sick. And oh my gosh, what an eye opener.
   One player went on sale at £1. I haven't seen any humans get him for less than £2.50 but let's be generous and say the limit for bots was £2.00.
   That is 100 shares per 1p = 10,000 shares bought by bots.
   If we have 10,000 shares bought at £2.00 and sold at £2.70, that is 10,000 x 0.70 = £7000. That doesn't include the fact that 9900 shares are bought below £2.00. Thousands leaving humans and going to bots.

2. Pumpers and dumpers.
   Potentially more damaging as it hits new players.
   Stipe Perica as an example (as he is live atm).
   Available for 33p. Bot pumps to 53p. That is 2000 futures. Now available for IS at 70p. Even for allowing 2000 futures bought at 53p and sold for 70p that is 17p x 2000 = £340. I have been very conservative in that price too and is probably easily closer to £500. That money is directly lost from new players. It isn't good enough to say they need to learn/it is their own fault. I fully believe the speed in pump is bots, buying and selling at pre-selected prices and targets new/weak players.

3. Saturday sellers.
   For me, this is the most dangerous because it is harder for us as players to detect.
   By Saturday sellers, I am looking at those buyers who buy as a goal comes in, and see prices rocket. I also believe most people don't see this as bot use, but it most certainly is. Get in on a goal before humans, then instant sell at 20p profit (add whatever profit number the bot owner sets). 100 shares x 0.20 = £20 profit. Not masses, but that is conservative. Now consider how many players rise on goals, on a Saturday alone. We are talking thousands of pounds.

All this money, whilst peanuts to FI, is money lost to real human players.
Think you are playing against others? Beat the bots first.

Fi HAVE to act on this. They can detect bots easily and by not acting they are saying they don't care.

My aim now is to rid FI of bots. It is easily done, just freeze bot accounts. Put money from bot accounts back into competitions/dividends etc.

I intend to:
Keep this thread bumped to top.
Harass FI to do something.
Spam thread at each opportunity.

FI simple have to act.

Anything else is just not good enough.

If you are having fun and can afford it, stay.
If you aren't having fun or can't afford it, fuck off and do something better with your life.

Life is too short.

I don't get why people keep saying things like 'I should be able to get my money out'.

Because quite simply it ceased to be your money the second you made a bet with it.
Just like when you make a bet at the bookies, that ceases to be your money too.

You have swapped your money for shares in a player (a bet).

Now, just like traditional bookies (sometimes) offer a cash out, FI (sometimes) offer a cash out - this is instant sell.
Now the bookies often remove cashout from markets, or offer such a small return that it isn't worth doing, to protect themselves, just as FI are doing.

In the case of FI though, they offer the opportunity for you to sell your bet to someone else (market sell). This is unaffected.
So either you made a good bet and someone will buy it off of you (as in the case of my Kane or Werner for instance).
Or you made a bad bet and no-one will buy it off you (as in the case of my John Obi Mikel).
Either way, it ceased to be your money the second you handed over your money in return for shares.

No way can they lower spreads now, that would be disaster for everyone

There is a lot of negativity and stress around the forums at the moment.

Whilst I can understand that, and I don't begrudge anyone selling up (do what is best for you), I would like to commend FI.

I think they are getting it fairly right. They don't know what the future holds. Whole countries don't know what to do, with all their might behind them.

FI are getting info to us asap, doubled divs, appear not to be over-stretching themselves.

When talking about pyramids etc, I am told that FI is no such scheme and dividends underpin everything.

This is never truer than now.

Money may be pumped into div winners and so it should.

Well done FI.

@NewUser303261 Trump wont give us a good deal, he will dictate what he wants and we will have to bend over and accept it.
Trump is a massive racist cunt and we have brexiteers falling overthemselves to do a deal with him.

The pop ups are nothing new and common to people using casino style betting

@Tikka-Mo-Salah

I am not sure if he hits £20 that 'those not on him will be gutted'.

There seems to be the thought in FI that if you aren't on a player, you begrudge when they do well and want the player to do shit and talk it down.

I don't think that is true. I think if you aren't on a player it lets you be more objective, not less. And those people who think he is a risk at £15 will think he is even more a risk at £20.

6 months ago, Neymar was the best, safest hold on the index and would continue to be.

4 months we were told Bruno was the best hold on the index.

Now the pumpers are saying Sancho is. Then, they will move on to the next guy, dump a shed load of losses on whoever is last in, and start pumping the next guy.

It can't last, he is over-priced and a lot of people are going to get burned.

It is in the same place for me as always.

@Baydog
No it wasn't. You tried to deflect but it didnt work.

Its like shooting fish in a barrow.

You can just say 'FS isnt for me' and that would be fine, you dont need to make up a load of bullshit about it :p

@Baydog
I dont need to imagine what would happen if FI don't expire shares.
FI don't expire shares.
First they increased the time from 3 years to 4 years, for some.
Then they stopped enforcing.

I dont need an imagination :)

@Baydog
Ok that is ok then, as long as they only break the rules for a short while, eh :p

Back to the point, the 'expiry' (used in the loosest term) is not to do with betting but to do with paying tax. It is certainly nothing to do with image rights or any of that.

@Baydog
Currently on FI it is yours to keep.

They state it is a bet and only 3 years and say they do it to get round the regulations.
They then state that they aren't enforcing it.
Therefore by your argument, they are openly breaking the rules.

Disclaimer: I don't think they are breaking the rules because I don't think the 3 year bet thing is a rule. I think it is something FI made up to avoid player lifetime div payouts.

Wait. FI use twitter?