The betting odds aren't always accurate on transfers but they are not looking good for Bale's price on the Index currently:
@dionysusthyrsus interesting, where did you read that? I assume it’s ignoring div returns for starters. Pogba alone has trebled in value and returned a massive amount of divs. Sancho, sterling etc similar and the bottom of the top 200 is now £1 when I think it was about £1 in old money back then.
The problem with buying into nonsensical cap app is you are essentially buying a bubble when the player doesn’t have div potential to back it up. You can get the same capital growth in players with good intrinsic value who are less risky.
@dionysusthyrsus they both don’t produce high peak scores which makes it hard to win. Their price growth has been driven by the index doubling in value over the same period, that won’t go on forever (although I hope it does). You could’ve bought TAA, Sterling (City mid is actually pretty poor for the index), Van Dijk from their respective clubs and made far more.
@Black-wolf Sergio Busquets, Andy Robertson, Ngolo Kante, Fernandinho etc. All top class players, woudn’t but any of them in Football Index though (their prices are cheap for a reason). They just don’t suit how the Index is scored. Bernardo looks to be the same (he’s clearly nowhere near Messi’s level nor will he ever be come on)
@mike778 agree with most of that. I would say that the chart is a general trend so each individual does need to be looked at separately. I think Bernardo was about as good as he can be (prime performance) last season and still didn’t win a dividend. Would need to become a PB beast to even approach 20% of Sterling’s returns let alone 40% (just one example since Sterling is same age and team).
Agree with your £1-£1.50 valuation.
The problem with a player like Bernardo is that it is hard to see how he will justify his price in dividend returns at this point. He is over 40% of Raheem Sterling’s price, will he ever produce 40% of Raheem’s dividend returns?
I’d say that’s very unlikely (he won barely a fraction of Sterling’s divs last season) and they are the same age. So why would you buy Bernardo over Sterling? This is becoming more apparent the higher he goes.
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