@NewUser129053 - I think John's just misunderstood your initial post. Read in isolation is can see the confusion but I'd say you've cleared that up now.

I think the point @John-Renwick was trying to make, and a VERY important one for any new traders reading this, needs to be highlighted. So this reply isn't really directed at you at all.

All the time you see people holding a top 5 player say things like'I wouldn't buy him for that price now' or 'I got him at £5 so he'd have to fall a lot before I see red'.

Those comments miss a crucial point. If you hold at £9.84 you clearly think he's worth £9.84. Otherwise why aren't you selling and using that money on better value players?

Purchase price and profit / loss on a single hold is irrelevant. Looking at only greens and reds doesn't factor in the opportunity cost of tying your cash up. Nor does it factor in dividends.

I realised this after about a month and it completely changed how I view the index. Much less panic, much more patience.

Sorry to hijack your post, you clearly weren't saying anything of the sort but John's point was one that I felt was important enough to try to highlight.

@dannypea said in Neymar 'obsession':

My take on Neymar is that a lot of people 'hold' his futures based on him eventually overcoming Messi & Ronaldo as the best player in the world.... The reason for his price rise over time is simply because everyone wants a slice... The reason that he's not fallen during his injury layoff is because people see no need to panic sell... The bigger picture is by keeping him they see huge growth potential... By selling him they may miss out on where the Bitcoin of FI can go?

As you say.. It may be false economy? There maybe better value? Nobody expected the rise in value of Mo Salah but then nobody expects Egypt to win the WC and perhaps people expect Neymar to have a big say in that?

I expect a couple of weeks at least of media buzz for Neymar this summer and if he wins the competition or gets more links with Madrid then I only see his price getting pushed up regardless of how well he's actually playing!!!

Got to challenge you on all of this. I think your post is a bit misleading but that isn't a pop at you by any means. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but equally I have seen so many posts like this on the forum in recent months and I feel the need to try to keep the information available to new traders as balanced as possible.

1. My take on Neymar is that people hold him because history tells them that he is the most consistent player for dividend return. You said it yourself he will win buzz even when he's not playing well, thus using the answer for his high price as a stick to beat him with!! If you're buying Neymar for capital appreciation I envy you because you're about to get a bigger return than you could ever have imagined.
2. Just because a player is class at football, it doesn't make him a good player on FI. I'll get pelters for sure but KDB is shit on FI. He's £4+ and returned 12p in dividends since the new year. Now that should be a false economy, but it isn't because my first paragraph ignores a key factor to a players price, which I like to call Trader Sentimentality.
3. The reason why his price hasn't fallen off during his injury is because he's Neymar, he is as close as you'll get to a guaranteed return on here.
4. There is definitely better value on the index I'll give you that. They expose you to a lot more risk and take up a lot more of your time. A mix of all subsections of players is recommended.
5. Just for the avoidance of doubt, as this is my main point and for some reason I've not mentioned it until now. The value of a player is, has always been and always will be based on their expected dividend return. Call out all the huge % rises you like and i can guarantee (apart from the pump and dumps - that's just people being sly cunts) that it is linked to expected dividend return. Now I'd argue that for a lot of them the expectation is way too high, as they'll never return a dividend. But over time, a players price increase or decrease will 100% be linked to their dividend return.

I think that this concept needs to be taught to new traders before they are allowed to deposit. It would be much healthier for the index.

Man its late as fuck... I've been waffling again haven't I 😂 oh and Salah has risen because he's won so many bloody dividends it's untrue. He is at the moment the very definition of a player who's value is rising in line with these fundamental principles!

@AndyP32 - spread prices in absolute terms are next to useless. Neymars spread is 3.5%, Messi is 5% and Ronaldo is a whopping 6.5%. Kanes is 3% by the by.

Is that high? You're damn right it is, all 4 of those players sat at 3% for a long time until a few weeks ago. 3% is pretty much the benchmark, few beat it, many many players come in higher. Ronny is likely to be the highest on the index at 6.5% but I haven't checked. But yes it is designed to stop the rot at the top end of the market.

Just perusing the increase list on the squad... Helder Costa 6.2%, Morgan Gibbs White 6.67 (we have a winner!!) etc. They are high to stop flipping once the instant sell on IPOs is activated.

Ignoring IPO players then. Damien Da Silva 6.3%, Kwoon Chang 5.2%, Ivan Mercano 6% etc. etc. etc.

My point is that the spreads of the top end of the market, apart from Ronny, aren't that bad and there is a lot of misinformation being 'spread' (pun intended).

The squad consistently has horrific spreads and I guarantee that FI makes more of those players than they do off the top boys, not even close.

@RichardMS said in Short term trading tips / strategies:

Thanks guys, I'm going to give the day trading a go. Could anyone recommend a good resource for fixture planning? ideally a calendar with the ability to filter leagues?

Download Sofascore app and set the top 5 leagues, CL and EL as favourites.

When you click on the calendar to change the date of the fixtures you want to view, you'll now find that all days with PB games have a blue dot and all treble media days have no dots (careful on the CL and EL qualifiers).

From there you can look at each PB day and favourite any game you think gives the potential for a flip and if you put a widget on one of the home screens on your phone it will list all the games you've favourited.

That's pretty much the best process I've found and it works a treat. Let me know what you think if you give it a go!

@NewUser56900 Thanks for sharing your research, this is good to know. I didn't realise that most bookies don't protect against the company's insolvency tbh but then again I used to bet with 365, Betfair and Paddy exclusively so I guess I never really saw it as a risk. The medium protection sounds like protection against the misuse of funds i.e. held separately from the companies funds, can't be invested / earn interest, possibly held by a third party with costs suffered by the vendor.

To be completely frank. This is a high risk game and your capital is exposed much more than it would be with a bank or traditional trading platform. But with great risk comes the potential for great reward. Put it this way - the highest yielding 3yr treasury bond at the minute yields 28% p.a (Turkey). That product guarantees a return of 28% each year with your capital returned at the end, assuming they haven't defaulted. Compare that to the UK equivalent which offers 0.75% p.a and you can see the difference in each products risk profile.

Since I rejoined at Xmas 2017 the index has grown by 150%+ with a lot of that growth being in the last month. I would rather hold my moneu in here than in Turkey so as risk vs reward goes I'd say FI is way ahead of the curve.

Don't invest money you can't afford to lose entirely would be my advice. And don't invest short term thinking you'll need the cash in a months time, because you might be looking to withdraw just as there is a blip in the market.

This happened to me when Barca got knocked out by Roma last year. I got caught with a large amount invested in premium players and they all took a tumble just as I was looking to divest. It wasn't pretty and as a result I've reduced my investment to a more comfortable level.

I got on at £1.72 a day or two ago. Don't usually go for this type of player and therefore missed out on Vinicius Junior, Lozano, Arthur, Martinez, Rodrygo, Pavon...

IMO all of these players are overpriced until they've at least had minutes in a PB league and you can see what they've got. That said, my opinion means nothing if the market thinks differently, as it appears to! So I dipped my toe for the first time and the rationale was:

• Seen as a future world star
• Young and Brazilian
• Tipped to be a big part of their next WC squad
• Linked to (in a sort of ascending order for index boomage) Milan, Lazio, Juve, Real, Barca, Man City, big big Liverpool links and finally a bit of United thrown in for good measure.
• At the time he was a quid less than Lozano, 70p less than Junior, 25p less than Martinez and Rodrygo etc. so plenty of room for growth

Wish I had got on this type of trade earlier, but better late than never! Slowly dawning on me that youngsters tipped for big things are here to stay, so why fight it!

A mix is always best and there's certainly some £2+ WC players with plenty of room for growth. The next trend will likely be PB players and breakthrough players for next year, as those not linked to transfers or in the world Cup have/will bottom out. As @TradingJournal says however there's always ongoing and fluid trends. One thing I have noticed is that there's a large subsection of players that rise a big , fall a bit less, rise a bit, fall a bit less etc etc. Overall they are on an upward trend and the strategy there is to time your buy and sell at the right time. A lot of people will hold onto transfer players too long, see a 19p rise turn into a 4p rise and sell up, only to see a rise the same week that makes them say 5p higher than their previous peak. So they get back on only to see another trough. If you do the opposite or just hold throughout you'll do alright. Transfer window isn't open yet so the risk of big busts due to a deal going through is low, in the small players at least. Buy when people are selling, sell when they are buying, keep capital aside and just look for opportunities. Its surprising just how much you can make with a small balance, a bit of spare time and most importantly self control.

Wouldn't say that the players left in Europe or those expected to go well at WC are over valued at all... The prices are rising due to reduced player pools for PB (CL for instance gives treble PB for two games - 12p forward div might be between two players). Future value is inherently linked to expect dividend return, I think we can all agree on that? So it therefore follows that Griezmann for example is worth every penny of his £6 buy price. Whether or not he was £5 last monfh is irrelevant because the price increase is driven by the fundamental market condition i.e. access to increased dividends? If a player is considered to be overpriced, yet increases by 20% in a month I think that the rationale behind the first statement is wrong. But to answer the your question I fully intend on milking Kane dry until the wc at which point I will be getting rid! Was too risky at that point but until then he's gonna give a nice return, certainly more than these huge spreads that are theorised (BTW Neymars spread after his injury, about 50p, was 4.5%... Walker Peters is currently 6.5% while De Ligts is 5.6%).

@MrFrenchTickler Yeah he isn't as bad as you would think for PB. I have bought in personally but I get your reasoning. I decided to get on him purely as I think there will be a rise when he returns from injury. If my hold makes it past kick off I'll be amazed! In hindsight the potential return might be pretty poor but hes up nearly 9% for me so far

My favourite game on FI atm is to 'scalp' these scumbags and buy in when they are in the middle of their first lot of purchases. Takes profit right out their pocket and is a nice earner too!

Lots of big favourites on Sunday, with Atalanta, Frankfurt and Bayern playing teams at the bottom of their respective tables.

Def - Hinteregger, Kimmich
Mid - Ilicic, Alejandro Gomez
Fwd - Lewandowski, Haller

@C-Arroyo no biggie mate, lots to go through each day I imagine! Cheers for sorting

@Pierre_FI.2129 said in Wednesday Tips - 13/03/12:

Can't call the Bayern Liverpool game, so I'm going for a Barca clean sweep

Def - Pique
Mid - Rakitic
Fwd - Messi

@C-Arroyo did you add my points in for Messi?

Can't call the Bayern Liverpool game, so I'm going for a Barca clean sweep

Def - Pique
Mid - Rakitic
Fwd - Messi

Treble days so hard to predict. Doesn't seem as busy as usual though so here goes..

Def - God knows... Aguilar
Mid - Savanier
Fwd - the PB king (Messi)

@C-Arroyo said in Friday Tips - 08/03/19:

@Cameron-Duffy

Look Cam.
The fact is this, yesterday one poster offered 4 tips.
One of those was a winning tip.
As there was by another 2 posters the previous day.

Now that could be of potential benefit to the posters themselves and to others, assuming there's some consistency presenting itself as evident over time.

On that basis I don't think it's very fair to ask for these daily threads to cease.
Find me a good reason and I'll certainly consider the validity of any requests.

If you're gonna stop can you do it like, right now while I'm winning?? 🙈

@C-Arroyo

Need to stop missing days 🙈

Def - Bonucci
Mid - Max Eggestein
FWD - Max Kruse

Not checked any team news so could have a mare here if any aren't actually due to play

@C-Arroyo

Definitely open to abuse but, let's be honest, the whole forum is. Funnily enough the only player I own at the time of writing is Brahimi and I didn't feel strongly enough to tip for PB. I hold short term and he was an obvious riser - I certainly won't be holding come kick off and he hardly needs my help atm!

@C-Arroyo

Missed a couple of days so need a result on Wednesday!! Small pool so should be a few winning shouts in here.

Def - Marquinhos is the one that stands out. My heart says that United have a chance and could come out as world beaters, but their injury list means that the squad is down to bare bones at the worst possible time. I'm hoping for a famous night for United (and that's from an arsenal fan!!), but my head says PSG win and Marquinhos could be in their midfield picking up points all game long.

Def - Pepe has every chance for me. Has settled in at Porto and is their starting cb. His goal record speaks for itself and his experience is second to none. Usually a big game player and this game will be huge for Porto. Historically decent for PB with a good passing stats and excellent goal stats.

Mid - Got to go for my boy Zaniolo. Been singing his praises on FI for months and he could be set for another huge night.

Not overly keen on many of the midfielders tomorrow so I'm going to leave it up to Zaniolo. Options were the likes of Di Maria, Brahimi and Herrera.

FWD - Dzeko. These single days are usually low scoring affairs for the fwds, with any goal scorer being in with a shout particularly those with GWG. Dzeko is an obvious choice.

FWD - Tiquinho has been scoring for fun and was rested at the weekend, against Benfica of all teams. Same reasons as above - any goal gives him a shout.

@C-Arroyo

Do you need to take single / double / treble PB into account? For instance you could say 1 winner out of 2 tips is worth 0.5 on a single day, but worth 1.0 / 1.5 on a double / treble day?

Saturday then

Def - Tah, Marquinhos
Mid - Pogba, Draxler
FWD - Jimenez... Tough one this... Gelson Martins, why not