@Jamiearsenal93 Another good example today... I've had Dembele for sale for a while at £2.35. Had a busy day at work and didn't see the rumours, just logged on now to see my shares sold earlier and his IS price has already dropped back down to £1.99.

Order books can work really well with a bit of patience.

If only your football knowledge was as good as your ability to create a new thread...

Anyway, football knowledge is clearly important but I honestly don’t think it’s the most important aspect. I have some friends that joined that have search a nerdy amount of football knowledge, they struggled as they would often buy/sell at the wrong time. There is also good money to be made on obvious players such as kroos recently, doesn’t have to be someone obscure.

If you can understand trends, have a sensible strategy, hold your nerve and combine that with doing a bit of research on the forum and elsewhere I’d say that’s better than just knowing a load about football.

@NewUser159387 These are all brilliant trades but, in my view, represent the riskier options, I still see Pogba and Neymar as low risk. I think I follow a pretty sensible/standard FI approach, the big hitters offer stability and divs - then try and blend that with the sort of trades you've mentioned. Whilst many follow a similar approach there will always be value in the likes of Pogba.

@Archer22 With all the recent focus on intrinsic value Messi is difficult to overlook. Obviously the age worries people, but I look at the div table and think he could genuinely return his price in divs over the next 12 months. Would take a pretty impressive effort, but it's Messi we are talking about!

@Dan-The-Man Totally understand, I think peoples decisions over the next few weeks will be a lot more driven by their risk appetite than on the old FI. Even if you perceive a player to be good value it does still feel less predictable because we are less sure how the overall market will act. I really wouldn't be that surprised if Pogba was anywhere between £3-£7 come 5pm on Saturday.

I bought Kane last night at £4 and just sold for £5.45! I was pretty pleased with myself but £3.60 is ridiculous, well done!!

The div increase has made PB so much more exciting. I hold Maddison and that tense, love that 1 point win!

@Nally A few people have made the point that Rashford almost came on the scene too early for football index.

He scored two goals on his United debut in the europa league, then two against arsenal in a 3-2 win before going on to score on his England debut. If a player did that today I think they would hit £6 - £7.

So yes I agree that Rashford is a good price, but I think this comes down to timing. People are less forgiving of his dry spell last season because he’s been around a few years, but in reality he’s a 21 year old nailed on starter for England and man united. Definitely one of the safest long term holds around for me.

@NewUser239977 overly simplistic way of looking at it, I’m a big fan of Barnes and bought 100 futures just before his loan recall, but they are different players. Barnes is powerful and aggressive, but grays skill/dribbling is far superior.
Not starting today though which is a shame after how good he was on Tuesday.

@dannypea Yea I follow now and see your point. It's an interesting one because I've actually posted a few times about how I see this as a positive.

I've always been terrible at selling, i'd watch a player rise and then really struggle to sell even if I thought they were at their peak. Now I have quite a lot of my players up for sale continuously at prices a fair bit above their current price and whilst it's almost guaranteed I won't sell at their peak, it's still at a price that will be profitable for me.

So with the Salah example, if I identified I wanted to sell him then i'd list at a price that I think he could spike to after scoring a hat trick. I might then have him up for sale for a few weeks, if he does then score a hat trick and sell then I'd be happy because I know it's at a price I was comfortable with regardless of if someone sold for a bit more. This removes the emotion of when i'd be watching the instant sell price during a game when something like that would happen.

I do now find myself scanning through my bids/offers quite regularly to make sure they seem current.

@Coriolanus Yea, I picked him up for 49p so I don't mind holding for a bit. I just hoped he would start the season well whilst there was less competition, now there's Maddison and Under coming back in.

Knoche isn't a bad shout, 14p IS at the moment is slightly tempting. Although I had told myself i'd stop with the cheap players now!

@wearing-louis Yea, I saw this and I think it's why the England players were laughing when he scored. If he isn't ever going to get a GWG from a corner then it's tricky to see where divs come from.

I'm not sure he would get a big transfer for a few seasons, Wolves seem pretty ambitious.

@Coriolanus Yea that is completely my strategy, there just needs to be something that works in their favour over the 3 years and then cash in. Sounds like you nailed it with Cresswell!
The IPD promo was a bit mad though, I managed to flip every player that scored/assist for a decent profit but then I have got stuck with a bunch of Ayoze Perez i'm keen to shift.

@Coriolanus Haha yea, although in my defence I think players around that price are always going to be a bit questionable. I really don't rate cresswell for example, but 10p to 30p is huge and that's what matters.

@Geronimo159387 Yea for sure, I could get lucky and sell for 100% profit in a few months time or I could sell for 20p in 3 years time and it be really quite boring. Quite often average or pretty poor players can see decent rises, will be about timing the exit.

@dannypea I think your last sentence sums it up nicely, it feels pretty low risk and could be good fun if they rise. Offers something different to the other 95% of my port anyway.

@dannypea Yea I follow now and see your point. It's an interesting one because I've actually posted a few times about how I see this as a positive.

I've always been terrible at selling, i'd watch a player rise and then really struggle to sell even if I thought they were at their peak. Now I have quite a lot of my players up for sale continuously at prices a fair bit above their current price and whilst it's almost guaranteed I won't sell at their peak, it's still at a price that will be profitable for me.

So with the Salah example, if I identified I wanted to sell him then i'd list at a price that I think he could spike to after scoring a hat trick. I might then have him up for sale for a few weeks, if he does then score a hat trick and sell then I'd be happy because I know it's at a price I was comfortable with regardless of if someone sold for a bit more. This removes the emotion of when i'd be watching the instant sell price during a game when something like that would happen.

I do now find myself scanning through my bids/offers quite regularly to make sure they seem current.

@dannypea I think Shelvey is probably one of the least sexy players around and i'm not sure he passes your girlfriend test, so you've not given me much confidence there.

I agree though, something needs to change and that's what your gambling on. I think Bednarek will move to a bigger club and if so it should be easy to sell him 30p+.

The two examples I've given might end up being useless, but I do still find this area of the market pretty interesting. There will definitely be some cheap players that double in value in the next few months, picking them out is the tricky bit!

@dannypea In terms of demand and the Sancho eg i'm not sure OBs really have that much of an impact. If you wanted to buy Sancho for under £10 under the old system you still would've needed a circumstance to change in order for him to drop? Equally on the other side for selling at peak.

I think the difference now comes from playing the spreads, which can be quite volatile and move pretty quickly. Also, now the spreads have tightened more people are having to use the buy now price which will also lead to quite quick changes.

@TotalPunt Agreed, 100% will need to get lucky but as Doug says it happens quite often where a random player wins.

I think the reason why I’ve bought a few in that price range and also started this thread is because I find it interesting that I don’t really know how to value such players. The more predictable the PB wins the easier it is to come up with what a value and everyone has their view on what most of the top 200 should cost. However, for those players that rely on luck, they can’t be worthless as they still have a chance of winning over the 3 years. They also shouldn’t be worth that much either, but I just can’t really decide what the price should be.