@Black-wolf said in Trent!!:
@Andy not sure how long you have been here but when i started players like neymar, messi and salah where above £12 on dividends not far of where they are now. This ofcourse was before the share split. An MB win was 5p and a treble match day saw PB wins of 12p and 8p for starman if I remember correctly. And this was before any announcement of a share split. So considering this i have to say i don’t believe £7 for a player is actually that expensive when they offer the returns trent does.
I think people are just hoping for bigger returns after the growth of the share split spoilt us and causes us to forget what we were willing to pay for a player prior to it
Just over 12 months ago, people seemed more than content to plough into "guaranteed" dividend Winners, regardless of how much they cost (Pogba, Neymar, Messi etc.). It was a much higher return than a bank account and you also got some decent cap app to compliment the regular dividend haul. It was relatively "safe" investing. Leading up to, and shortly after the share split, we still saw the money go into these dividend earners.
But then something happened. The FI management welcomed on board execs from regular gambling backgrounds and things started to change - the G&A trial that began in October '18 was made permanent (becoming IPDs) in Summer '19 and this tapped in to the quick fix trader mentality. The volatility seen during the trial period was nowhere near as bad but the significant change in mentality was already starting.
Then of course came the decision to open up media to every player on the index, thus removing a level of prestige that was previously only afforded to the Top 200. In my opinion, this was a terrible move.
Being 1 of only 199 others able to win a certain dividend gave justification to the high prices of most of these players.
Now however, there are so many players in the current top 200 that are vastly overpriced because of this significant movement of the goalposts - just based on numbers alone (and not taking into account their stature, club, form, appeal etc. ) their odds of a media dividend win have potentially gone from 200/1 to over 4000/1. Combine that with the lottery of a PB win (in particularly on gold and silver days) and you do wonder how some of them are still priced so highly.
The recent dividend increase was great, and has added value again but in reality has only rewarded the few and not the many. The chances of winning, for most players, are still slim at best. This hasn't been altered with a dividend increase. So, as @Black-wolf says, this indicates that the likes of TAA and other regular dividend winners are, if anything, significantly under-priced at those odds. That's if you compare to 12 months ago.
However, this isn't 12 months ago. This is now, and things are different. We are seeing the impact of Football Index's decision to appeal to traditional gamblers - traders are regularly being brainwashed by other traders, drip-fed the notion that buying high priced players is bad, and the "promised land" lies in cheap punts for quicker returns. Whilst that is certainly possible and is done regularly, it is also possible to make good returns in less volatile/risky holds in the top end. You are allowed to hold both types of player, they aren't all either good or bad. I personally have a portfolio that starts with a 60p player going all the way up to £7. The 60p player is up 8p per share, whilst the £7 player has returned well more than that in divs alone, so they are BOTH performing in their own way.
Unfortunately, because of the regular anti-top 200 agenda on the forum and Twitter, there is now a certain stigma attached to players over a certain price, no matter how good they are. This has stifled the market and it's not good for anyone. Many predicted the first £10 post-share split player would be seen at Christmas. We were miles off and are still a long way from happening if this "us and them" mentality continues.
Well that escalated quickly! Sorry folks, it just came spilling out 😳😂