Hi there FI traders, old and new.
I have been a bit more active on the forum recently, and I have noticed a few threads titled “how do you research?“ or “what sites do you use to research players?“, and I thought I would put together a very basic post, on the types of things I look for in a player when purchasing.
What I wanted to do, is to also give you two players, who I believed would be worth buying on a short and long term, for the IPD's (in play dividends) and for general growth over a 3 year period, including potential PB (player bonus) and TOTM (team of the month) in the hope to tender to all needs.
To begin with, if I am buying a player for the short term, in order to cash in on the 30 day IPD period, I begin by looking at fixtures. I looked at the champions league teams and the europa league teams, as these teams are playing 7 times during a 30 period, and european cup scoring is worth x1.25 normal scoring. Typically the players that participate in these competitions make up the vast majourity of PB scoring, and also make the TOTM.
I decided against choosing players from teams playing in the champions league, as I could not see one team who had an easy run of games, and instead opted for a team playing in the Europa League.
Below I have highlighted teams in bold who I believed would do well in the 30 day period for IPD, and also who are likely to go on to progress. In red are the two teams I decided to go with, after looking at their domestic fixtures also;
Next I use two basic websites for stat comparison, one is transfermarkt and the other is whoscored. Transfermarkt is great for looking at details player stats, and whoscored has a more accurate scoring system, closer to that of the FI.
My first team is Roma, so load Roma into transfermarkt search and I looked at their fixtures. I did this to check who they are playing, and also who they have recently played to look at both their form, and the team they have started with.
Roma looked to have a good set of fixtures, and haven't had a terrible run of form, but are yet to really start scoring goals.
I then look at their player stats, by clicking STATS and All seasons.
Now, as I said, they haven't had a great goal scoring start to the season, this is both a positive and negative thing. It's a negative because they migth be struggling, but looking at previous games I think they're just finding their feet with new players. It's a positive, because it gives me a whole host of players to look at.
I say this because, sometimes you can me 3-8 games into a season, and central defenders have scored 1-2 goals, the forward has scored 5-8 goals, and when looking at individual player stats, particularly with defenders, they score between 3-8 goals a season, and they're fairly spread out. Therefore lack of goals and assists can mean there's plenty of players to choose from.
When looking for a player, for both short and long term I consider the following, their age, the position they play, their goal scoring record, the players they're playing amongst (this could be the most important one).
With my set of considerations, I picked out Carlos Perez. He might not be the obvious choice, he is young, comes with little experience but has a decent record, and bags of potential. I had a look at his stats, by clicking on him and looking at STATS, All seasons.
Like I mentioned, limited experience, but what stood out for me was that he is family with the squad, although he is a new transfer this season, and more importantly he has Europa League experience and a goal.
It turns out a fair few of his appearance last season were as a substitute, and with Roma having sold a few players, and a few out injured, they're a little thin in that area, and it could be his opportunity to shine.
Now, before I commit to anything, you have to check FI, make sure he is not overpriced, have a look to see what opta stats are available.
His current price is £1.16, which seems very reasonable given he is young and playing in Europa League in a decent team within a relatively easy group. His 1 Year chart is not volatile (up and down like a rollercoaster), he seems stable, so I won't loose money if he doesn't perform well straight away, and I can see he has spiked twice in the past, taking his price up to the £1.58 mark. This means there are traders interested in buying when he scores, or when mentioned in the media.
Next I look at his stats, because this is where he will score to either make PB, or to reach TOTM. Now, to be honest, at the moment he is some way off gaining either of those accolades, but he is showing potential. Given he has only 1 start and 1 substitute appearance, and only 1 assist, he has a half decent score of 170, which tells me his game matches quite well to the Football Index scoring system.
For me Perez has ticked all the boxes I would want to see for a young player, in a team without obviously over glamorised players, with the potential to improve his PB game, and score a few goals within the next 30 days. I don't believe he is going to blow-up, I don't think he is going to rocket in the short term, but I think there's a good chance I could buy now, and sell after a goal or two, or, buy now, get what I can in IPDs for the next 30 days, and then hold and watch him develop.
Villarreal, I will make this explanation much shorter. Again I looked at the fixtures, and they seemed fair for a 30 day period, and Villarreal look a stronger team this season.
Again I loaded them into transfermarkt, and again there haven't been many goals scored, which once again can be as much a positive as a negative.
The player that stood out to me, because of his age and that he is starting games (before I realised the Arsenal link), was Pau Torres, a centre-back.
This purchase is a little different for a few reasons. Firstly, I rarely go for defenders, until recently with the dividend increase, only because I find it difficult personally to get excited about a centre-back, but this is as much about money as it is about pleasure, in fact the two coincide.
There's not much history to look at with Torres, I can see he started a lot of games last season, and his average score looks good on whoscored for the 19/20 season, plus he grabbed two goals, which isn't great, but it means he can score.
Onto Football Index, again, nothing here to get me going, but there are positives from a very substantial looking graph. Firstly his 1 year view is very stable, it means he is very unlikely to lose value any time soon. He has a high point of around £1.05, which means there's about £0.20p or so growth to come, and this is considering he did pretty much nothing last season to grab the headlines.
In Villarreal he is not surrounded by big names, or by any real MB (media buzz) stars, so hitting the back of the net might make a few headlines. So far he is looking like a safe, but boring punt.
That was until I found he is linked to both Manchester Untied and Arsenal, with Arsenal apparently having a contract to be signed for a January transfer. Now given he has done nothing in terms of goals, or media, but he is within a good team in Villarreal, in a decent group, there's immediate growth in value.
What I did next was look at where he could potentially be, in the Arsenal team.
Arsenal's defense are ridiculously cheap, which in my opinion is great news for Torres. I had to go to page two to find their regular CB starters in Holding, Luiz and Kolasinac, with only Magalhaes on the first page at £0.84p.
This means he could be the equivilent of Ruiz for Man City at £0.86p (underpriced because he hasn't played yet, I expect a big rise), or Maguire at Utd £1.38, Virgil van Dijk at £1.89, the list goes on.
I think he will overtake Magalhaes in price, not because of ability, but because Magalhaes is Brazilian, and typically European CB are higher priced because they have the potential to play in more International cups.
Add on top of this the potential of MB (media buzz), when he signs, this looks like a sensible purchase.
And that is it, biggest post I have made, and I hope it helps someone. I'd appreciate it if more experienced FI traders would also add their opinion, and thoughts for additional methods or considerations. This isn't something to be mind blowing or to set a standard, it is a basic benchmark for researching.
Thanks for reading, and good luck.